Trading cycle - buy signal, MA10 was tested again(the futures did not broke the trend line). I think we have one 20d cycle which is right translated and the next one should make higher high and fail as left translated.
If you see the price breaking below MA10 run for the hills:)
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term.... this move up in October is exactly the same story like the whole rally from the March low - it is corrective, the majority has no clue how to count it so it is impulse what else should be:) Best match w-x-y, but it does not count so well and if we see higher high it will look better again as diametric.
Intermediate term - triangle was my last hope for classical EW pattern from the March low. With the price action this week I think neowave diametric fits much better. With orthodox EW we have the top in early September. The biggest decline was in September, which means we have reversal and this rally is not supposed to be happening.... and now we have to look for excuses like it is impulse just completing 5/5, LD and deep retracement or flat/expanded flat.
Many indices made higher highs, if SP500 follows instead of looking for excuses it is better to accept it for what it is. What is the point of just pasting labels somewhere and looking for excuses?
Again if you are not interested in theoretical discussion just look at market breadth/MACD with double divergences and RSI on the daily and weekly chart - this is all you need to know:)
Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle.
I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle. Wave C should begin soon - white if September is 20w low and alternate yellow if late November/early December is 40w low.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive, but we have many indicators with double divergences forming. Do not expect some lasting strength we have topping process.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, one more lower high for short term diveregence?
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with possible double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - around 70 with possible double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around 75 with possible double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - the same consolidating sideways. Look at it from another perspective SVXY, volatility is about to explode higher - see the last chart.
Advance-Decline Issues - similar setup like RSI - testing the broken trend line and lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - low to low count I see 20d cycle low testing MA10. It is right translated so the next one should make higher high
High to high count - the 5w is where it should be. I expect one more high for 4x20d cycles to complete the 10w/40w cycle. Judging by the previous three 20d cycle we should see another 4-6 trading days higher and major top.
Week 14 for the 20w cycle. Another option is the September low is 20w low this is what fits with the pattern I favor.
I think this is the top of the pattern from March, which means this should be the 40w high.
SVXY huge pennant/triangle so that MA200 can catch up with price. What do you think will happen with volatility, when the pattern is completed?
Thanks Krasi...If we have this last rally, I think it can look very similar (fractally) to the rally from the very end of January till the 20th of February of this year.
ReplyDeleteGood chart on SVXY, depending on how you draw the flag and timing (I project around the very end of October) - SVXY can hit abt. 41.8
I don't think we are going to take out March lows, we will drop to around 2650 SPX then bounce. We will most likely get to 4000+ SPX before we head down to take out March lows and head to 1650 SPX. This is a long process and I expect it to take place over the next 5 years. It is an expanding triangle, right now we are in the the D leg of the expanding triangle. The triangle started with an A leg in Oct 2018.
ReplyDeleteon second look, we might not even get to 2650 and only retest june lows . The 98 FLD crossing on daily is not invalidated yet and that gives much higher targets. I did a backtest and the only time that was invalidated in the last 20 years was in 2002
DeleteWave C of this triangle is the shortest wave shorter than A. This is not a valid triangle especially expanding because it is not expanding.
Deletethats not what i said read my comment again. hint: im not using neelys triangle
DeleteQuote - "It is an expanding triangle, right now we are in the the D leg of the expanding triangle. The triangle started with an A leg in Oct 2018."
DeleteThis is what you said, this is not neelys triangle, this is a triangle with C wave March.2020 which is not valid.
A leg - Oct 2018-Dec 2018 - 700 points
DeleteB leg - Jan 2018-Feb 2020 - 1000 points
C leg - Feb 2020-March 2020 - 1200 points
D leg - March 2020- Current
A and B leg are shorter than C leg.
I am talking about time, the C wave can not be shorter than A. It should expand in time and price.
DeleteYou are talking for even more subdivision and more complexity this is only possible if we have impulse(for zig-zag) or zig-zag(for combination). Neither is the case we have already complex structure which will not continue with more subdivision.
Simple said w-x-y can not be the first leg of a zig-zag - this is what you are suggesting.
Which rule says the C leg can't be shortest in time? This an expanding triangle, I am mainly concerned about structure.
DeleteThe first leg from march lows was an impulse or A of the zigzag. We are currently making the B wave rn, which could last atleast 6 months. There is nothing complicated about this. I know you don't see this as an impulse so good luck counting. I won't be making anymore responses because I made my point. We can disagree.
Iros a tomar por el culo.
ReplyDeleteDo not worry the market will take care to put it in your culo.
DeleteLol
DeleteWeekly candles on both on spy sand Qqq certainly look bearish right now. My culo is protected
ReplyDeleteif there are new lows may be 20 days low was not the friday, and maybe if there is new low it can be 5w low
ReplyDelete5w high lasting seven weeks and 5w low lasting three weeks.... the short term cycles are telling different story high-to-high cycles are running shorter and low-to-low cycles are longer which is consistent with the long term picture.
DeleteIf we see continuation it is just the beginning of the second 20d cycle and we should see 2-3 weeks lower.
I am long UVXY. My target is $28-30. Your last graph implies you're predicting something along the lines of March 2020. I hope you are right!
ReplyDeleteUvxy hit 28 i would short thatgarbage i dont see that righr now im seeind 339o then 3624 then down to 3200 monthly
DeleteThe chart above is pretty clear - why shorting against the trend?
DeleteThe time for meandering is over, when it turns lower SP500 will stop at 2000.
feels bearish
ReplyDeleteFeels like another zig-zag.
DeleteGoogle anti trust announced by the doj. Wave three?
DeleteHi Krasi, you have been eagerly waiting for this short opportunity. How do you determine in this case when to enter short? SPX already closed below MA10 but based on your cycles analysis, you think there can be one more high. Do how do you make a decision?
ReplyDeleteNot confirmed is smaller position allowed confirmed is big position allowed.
DeleteAt the moment we have sell trigger, but no confirmation. Confirmation is continuation lower today in third wave, which takes out the last minor lows around 3360.
I am waiting because I doubt this is a reversal and there is no confirmation.
if it's the 3 we'll gap down hard tomorrow
ReplyDeleteWhen we have a reversal it will be obvious this 6 days meandering is bullshit.
DeleteThe last leg up will be retraced in less time so no time for meandering.
Lets see three different orthodox EW guys, which are smarter than the majority and know all this is corrective:
ReplyDelete- one with LD(September high) and now with expanding LD
- another with LD and now LD
- another with this is 5/C as expanding ED
- other not so smart, but getting the idea the whole move from March is ED wave 5 from 2009
All this LD, expanding ED/LD are fantasy patterns existing only in the books. And LD twice in a row is pure desperation and delusion.
As I wrote instead of looking for excuses and counting fantasies I would rather use Neely's diametric.
I think 7 october was 20d low and the next week will be 5w low
ReplyDeleteI see it differently. I expect 40w cycle longer than the usual accordingly the shorter cycles will last longer and this is just 20d low.
Deletelooks like a sloppy bearflag on ES, target 3370 area https://invst.ly/sjk-k Maybe Nancy tells trump to go f himself
ReplyDeleteI see two corrective legs lower with roughly the same size - https://invst.ly/sjpia
DeleteProbably push lower at the opening to trap the bears and reversal up.
I watches Neelys vid.. would you say this is the selloff he is referring too.. or reversal up and then back down election or post election..
DeletePersonally, im really surprised by the sell off.. though earnings are looking to be good..
This is the middle of the last wave g up.
Deleteokk.. makes sense.. just rewatched that part to refresh my memory..
DeleteI'm not sure, everything looks like it topped including gold and Bitcoin.
DeleteEs still looks corrective to me, like a complex wave 4. Your thoughts? One more down?
ReplyDeleteIt looks corrective and it should be completed. NYSE and XLF look like triangle.
Delete