Weekly preview

I was expecting 3-5 days higher for 5w high and test of MA50 - we have it.

What is next is more difficult question.
From cycle perspective we have conflicting signals - the trading cycle is in buy mode this should be the expected 4th cycle and we should see another 15-20 days higher. But from another perspective we have 4 weeks lower and one week higher for 5w high(which is bearish) and next we should see decline for 3-4 weeks into 5w low this is what comes after 5w high.
From pattern perspective the bears see LD and now a-b/B or 2, the bulls see a-b-c finished and new highs coming.
I would say expect something different - most likely some sideways pattern like triangle. This can resolve this cycle conflicting signals or the other option just continuation lower.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. We have a trend line already tested on Friday. This is the 4th cycle running and we should see another 15-20 days higher(the red count high-to-high). The problem is this is the final cycle for the 40w sequence, which should be the weakest one. Probably the most profitable part of it are already behind us with the rally from Fridays last week and this week.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the "bullish scenario" the white count is what the majority follows A/1 LD and a-b/B or 2 running.
I think something else is going on. I do not believe in LDs and I expect the decline for b to take longer into 20d low and retrace more than 62%(the yellow count). All this pat of a bigger sideways pattern.
The alternate options - continue to new highs, which is not very likely or just continue lower, which will not surprise me.

Intermediate term - the price broke below MA50 and testing it, MACD broke below the zero line and testing it. Again waiting to see what happens next before putting labels....

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern flat/triangle or x wave. With corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up, lets see what will follow next week.
McClellan Oscillator - reset and above zero after slightly oversold levels.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, but reached oversold level and trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - jump from the 25 level and in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - nothin interesting, doing nothing... it looks like bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - nothing interesting in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 4 days higher for 20d/5w high as expected. Next we should see decline into 20d low, curently 6 days old so we should see something like another 4-8 days lower.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle. At the moment my assumption is that we have 40w high and 10w low.