Weekly preview

A lot of volatility this week - all this weakness for so long just confirms that the indices are close to a top.
Pattern - many trying to justify reversal.... three weeks overlapping mess could not retrace one week up. This is not a reversal for me.
Cycle - this is more complicated it is not so obvious. The majority is convinced this is 20w cycle low I am not. Why? The move of higher degree which divides the second zig-zag(running from November) in two parts is the one in January and not this one. This is well visible if you look at DJ,NYSE or the European indices. Another way to look at it - which decline is stronger and reaches the usual level for 20w low? This week is definitely not a 20w low you need another 2-3 weeks lower to count 20w low.

Short said I do not see a reason to change the analysis. The tech sector looks bad AAPL/TSLA with possible impulse lower and reversal. All this is dragging SP500 lower creating a distorted picture, but the rest like DJ/NYSE/Europe - nothing changed.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal. There is two options - sideways pattern is running or it finds resistance at MA10 and the decline continues next week for a few more weeks. I think it is the first option and if it is the second you can buy 20w low.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looks like complicated overlapping correction. If you look at DJ/NYSE you will see simple zig-zag with c=a. Still expecting final zig-zag higher.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
Too deep retracement for zig-zag C/Y(white)... maybe a triangle?

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
The best alternate pattern I see, if it is not a triangle, is w1 of ED and 50%-62% decline for w2 of the diagonal.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - lower after the weakness this week, but turning up hinting short term bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - turned up, but still below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - trying to turn up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - one more test of the low?
Advance-Decline Issues - small divergence and turning up.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think it is better to look other indices like DJ - I expect several days higher for 20d high.

Week 5 for the 20 week cycle. NYSE the price action and this weekly candle has nothing to do with 20w low. I have marked all the 10w lows - it is not even a 10w low. If we see another 2-3 weeks lower than it will be 20 low. For all the guys with "another three months higher" - if we do not see several more weeks lower you can forget your three months higher.

This is what I see - you have one big zig-zag up, which consists of two smaller zig-zags. Time relationship is similar and currently the middle section of the second leg of the smaller zig-zag was completed - the green arrow two weeks correction and up. What is left is 2-3 weeks final zig-zag (the circle) to complete the whole structure from the March low. Another 2-3 months makes zero sense - out of proportions big time.