Weekly preview

Corrective structure up as expected. This surge has the signs of a final push before a top - it comes after the price bounced twice from MA50 but not resetting rather topping, vertical move to look convincing, gaps up every day most likely exhaustion gaps, selling the highs every day.

According to my analysis cycles and pattern are very close to their final target - 18 month high and completed corrective structure from the March low.
Next week we have FOMC, which is usually some kind of a low/high. If we see the week starting higher this is not good the indices are heading for the final top. If we see a few days lower than watch for the top in the fourth week of March.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal after another MA10 cross. The analysis was right that the sell trigger should be ignored.
Again analysis and trigger should point in the same direction for a trade. High-to-high daily count entered the time window for a high and the next time we have a MA10 cross both analysis and trigger will point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this move up is some complex corrective structure - I see two zig-zags so far.... is this a and now b? If we see the price lower for a few days around mid-week it is a b-wave and we have one more c-wave up. Alternate I am watching f lower and g higher.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
Multiple divergences MACD and RSI - this looks like a top and not a continuation to me.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern. At the moment I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.
The best alternative I see, if it is not a triangle, is w1 of ED and 50%-62% decline for w2 of the diagonal.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - short term bottom and turned up as expected. At the moment we have plenty of long term divergences.... if price turns lower in the next 1-2 weeks we will have confirmation for intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, series of lower highs so far.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, very high probability for a divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, series of lower highs so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, series of lower highs so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the low again with higher low so far.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, lower high so far.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 4 weeks from the previous high so it is time for 5w high. Waiting for the second 20d cycle high to be completed.

Week 6 for the 20 week cycle. The high-to-high count reached my target 4x7 weeks. Soon we will know if it is right or wrong.