Trading cycle - still buy signal, but this will change soon. At day 42 is time for daily cycle high and the turn lower should be not just of 10w magnitude, but from 18m high into 18m low. The analysis said to ignore the previous crosses - not this time.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from zig-zag to double zig-zag. DJ chart shows it more clear. g/C itself is complex wave another double zig-zag. Three different Fibo measurements point to 100-150 points(DJ not SP500) higher for perfect top of this wave.
Intermediate term - you can see this double zig-zags everywhere. You can count the whole move as big A-B-C consisting of two double zig-zags and inside them there is plenty of double zig-zags like g/A and g/C. It does not matter what exactly it is, the important info is - it is corrective.
Long term - the move from March 2020 should be completed. Next week could start higher, but expect reversal. After the top expect 8-10 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week.... the McClellan indicators are pointing to a top the others rather showing strength.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, weak with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - very overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - extreme overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - at the levels from last week.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs short and intermediate term.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 20d low probably on 07.04 the indicators I watch say 14.04 - the 5w cycle is dominant and the shorter cycles like 20d are not well visible.
The cycle highs on the other side look almost perfect 9+12 and 12+9 days for 5w and 10w cycle highs.
This is 10w high at week 33, which means 40w/18m high - I do not know how to twist it as something else.... you have to make a lot of assumptions which deviate a lot from the normal cycle behavior.
Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The 40w cycle high is 33 weeks long - the average range is 32-36 weeks.
Zoomed out the weekly chart - at the trend line with double RSI divergence.... good luck to all which see this as bullish.
Parece que la guerra en Ucrania va a serbel catalizador de bajadas.
ReplyDeleteMaybe... many analysts are talking about imminent conflict.
DeleteKrasi, Have you looked at gold and gold stocks? What do you think about gold stocks/energy stocks if the whole market turns down? Many say we've entered the commodity super cycle of which oil and gold will go much higher. Will they be down with the market and turn higher later? Or they will move in an opposite direction with the market. Your opinion will be much appreciated. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteThe commodity super cycle is years away. It will begin between 2030-2032 when precious metal make their 16 year cycle low.
DeleteCommodities are moving in sync with the indices and this will continue. Gold will decline into 2023-2024 with the indices into 9 year cycle low.
The caveat is at the moment I am watching for a triangle in gold so the price low to buy will be 2023-2024 it will take long time for the pattern low to form 2030-2032 with higher low and then commodities will really explode.
Something like this - https://invst.ly/ui1r5
DeleteThank you very much.
DeleteTo me it looks like a perfect cup and handle formation...any thoughts?
DeleteThe thoughts are on the chart. PM are not safe haven everything will be hit hard when SHTF - it is called margin call everything will be sold.
Deleteweekly stochastic on nq and es look to be 3-4 weeks away from any top to me. es 3965 looks like the floor in the this market for a long time. dave bannister now calling for 5200 year end. he called 4175 3 months ago.
ReplyDeleteI have stopped listening gurus long time ago.
DeleteJust another guru throwing numbers and looking like a genius as long the market goes up.
I bet he will be another failed guru.
snp, I'm curious how you are looking at stochastic to come to that conclusion?
DeleteThis is what I'm seeing on weekly and daily- https://imgur.com/a/RwowoXt
My read is that once the trendline is above 80 it becomes high risk of a reversal. You could be correct that it squeezes higher into those wedges for a few weeks. I've been watching a similar trendline form on 5,15,30 min charts from the March 4th low that looks exhausted, so I expect selling to start this coming week. Maybe that lasts a week or two and then bounces off the weekly trendline for one last rally to finally create all the divergences everyone wants to see (AD line, daily RSI, etc.)
Bigger picture, the move from the March 2020 low is clearly coming to an end very soon looking at stochastics, RSI and a number of other indicators. I know a lot of bulls have convinced themselves that with everything so fundamentally perfect in the world that the market can't possibly go down this year (even a little) so maybe they think it will just correct sideways for a couple months before rocketing up to 4500, 5200, 6666, 9999! What can you say to that? I don't even bother...
@anonymous-i add a 5 ma to stochastic as a crossover line. in particular, i am looking at slow stochastic on nq. still, my stochastic on es is not yet ready to turn down and cross over. granted, a very big down week could do that, but tops are usually an event, esp. this one. i dont see a dramatic pull back from here. too soon.
Delete@krasi good point on what dave bannister was saying a year ago. from march 29, 2020:
DeleteThe question is now what? Typically after a 5 wave decline (3393-2190 on SP 500) there is some type of Counter-Trend rally, usually a form of an A, B, C pattern. A wave up, B wave down, C wave up to retrace that 5 wave crash in this case.
That takes us to a likely minor B wave from the 2637 SP 500 highs this past Friday down to maybe 2470 area, possibly as low as 2400 area into the early few days of this coming trading week. Obviously I’m spit balling a bit here, but loosely a pullback and then another rally in April is likely taking us up towards 2700 possibly even a bit higher.
damn if it went to 2430 and up to 2700 and beyond. dave is good, real good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-Ko2aRVPb0&ab_channel=SentientTraderVideo
ReplyDeletein david hicksons most recent video he is not expecting a very deep drop in the next 18 month cycle low.
Guess what all cycle guys were saying a year ago:)
DeleteCycle guys like Hickson and Slim are seeing strong right translated 18m cycle so the conclusion small bump and higher - this is how they think and this is the way it works most of the time.
This works in a trending market, but this is not a trending market this is sideways correction.
They have no clue about patterns so they will be surprised again like last year.
Guess what you were saying a year ago :) No offense but your cycles don't have a clue either. It's all available in your blog for everyone to read. Please show the post over the last year showing where we are today?
DeleteThis is a side ways correction that goes up and up and up?
DeleteKrasi has been kind enough to post on this blog diligently for a while. Unfortunately, this is nothing but theory. Has anyone made any money following this advise? Anyone except Krasi?
DeleteThe usual crap at a high.... the fourth time since 2018. Normal too much emotions and thinking with your ass instead your head.
Delete@Anonymous1 - a year ago lower low and 4y cycle very bad forecast indeed:) after that I did not know just said at least 3000. Later saw Neely expanding triangle which explains the price action... and just a coincidence we are at a high on time for 18m high.
@Anonymous2 - and makes lower and lower lows check the chart.
@Anonymous3 - when it is just a theory why it has worked twice? why it is making high/low at certain time points? When you do not know how to use it, it is your problem not a problem with the theory.
What chart shows lower lows? Any chart from the past 12 months shows higher highs? Do I have the chart upside down?
DeleteOfcourse it is theory. That's why it's called Elliott Wave Theory. Not saying that your analysis is not good. It basically comes down to execution no matter how good anyone's knowledge of EWT or any other system is. I'm sure your execution is good and you have done well.
DeletePublish your results.
DeleteYes, Krasi, publish your results.
DeleteThere is no lower low. Most markets have be making new highs.
DeleteI agree with you that we are in a large scale correction. I think March 2020 was a Cycle Wave 3 top that began in 1942. The move from March highs is tracing out an expanded flat.
ReplyDeleteWe are still in B wave, and this can be complex. You are wrong to assume that the crash will begin with this top. I think more likely we will pullback to to SPX 3300 area to form b of B then have one final rally. Also, when this is all done I am predicting a drop to 1600 on SPX atleast.
Your expanded flat is already busted the B wave is way too big and too long compared to the A wave.
Delete1600 over what time period are you talking about?
DeleteWhat is your limit for b wave? Your own chart shows it has exceeded 161.8 of a. You are contraindicating yourself.
DeleteI am expecting 1600 in the next 1 to 2 years.
In a triangle the limit is 2,618 in a expanded flat it is 1,382.
DeleteSo there is no contradiction. Study closely the charts different indices and you will see this is not an impulse.
Ok thanks. I dont believe in triangles as isolated Elliott wave structures/corrections by themself. Triangles do exist but they are combination of 5 waves like 4, 5, a, b, c or a, b, c, 1, 2.
DeleteSo by the end of June your saying we will be at 3K or lower?
ReplyDeleteHave you seen some stocks like NIO. It shows that we in a clear 4th wave and 3 clear waves up from All time low. That doesn't fit with a big crash and more like a pullback for the major indices.
ReplyDeleteNIO means nothing for the market, it lost 50% already and will lose another 50% with the indices.
DeleteNext stop between 15-20.
Rumors out there the treasury dept is about to pounce on financial institutions for money laundering with crypto. Not individuals, financial institutions. Monday should be interesting. Thanks Krasi.
ReplyDeleteBTC kickstarting the turn in risk here? Right on the money Krasi ... lets see.
ReplyDeleteNeely peeked his head out today. Nothing definite yet but I think he's getting excited.
ReplyDeleteNeely always "peeks out" on Mondays, for that is when his weekly subscriber forecasts are emailed to us.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjxdzvCR2TE&ab_channel=TheKendallReport
ReplyDeletebob kendall: no crash in sight
No clue who the guy is and could not care less what another expert has to say.
Deleteno more than 2-3% and then higher for 4-6 weeks
ReplyDeleteSo basically he subscribes to slim
Deletethe 20dma on es and nq has been a general support area for 13 months. the qe remains steady. powellspeak has not changed. until those things do, more of the same. pull back and another challenge to highs.
DeleteKrasi, so is this an impulse? Beginning of the turn? Seems orderly, no panic just pullback from ATH?
ReplyDeleteToo early to say no impulse lower so far... but I doubt we will see impulses on the way lower.
DeleteThe move from the 25.March low is completed. For something more we have to wait and see.
apple makes iphones purple now, no top yet
ReplyDeleteSo what happens with the cycle if it goes to 3900 area then new ATH?
ReplyDelete3900 is too deep it will mean the 18 month cycle turned lower.
DeleteIf we see one more high the best I can come up with is this - https://invst.ly/uj78g
From the last high this is the sixth week so this down up should last two weeks.
that makes more sense for weekly charts and divergence daily
DeleteWait. What? What happened to 18 month high and 3000 by June, and this is the top?
DeleteThere is a question what if and I am trying to answer.
DeleteThis does not mean I have changed my mind.
Nflx the first to drop off. Muh fangs
ReplyDeleteprice not exactly falling off a cliff here and not even to support yet
ReplyDeleteLast year did the price fall of the cliff the first week?
Deleteit fell 8% in 5 trading days
DeleteThat was because we shut the economy down.
Delete3980 is the line in the sand, below that we have more than 62% retracement and overlap with the previous highs and game over - https://ibb.co/2nV1XWD
ReplyDeleteIf there is more to the upside this and next week we should churning up and down, but staying above 3980.
If we have reversal next week we should see acceleration lower and break below this level.
I would agree with this. 4000 is extremely strong support. Below that we probably have topped for awhile. Below 3600 = 2500. I still think 4K is a buying opp if we get there.
DeleteYou write, 3980 first target
ReplyDeleteRead carefully for me this is the difference is there reversal or not - not a target.
DeleteI am waiting to see double top, and then....
ReplyDeleteNetflix thinks it's a top
ReplyDeleteThe vix can't go over 20 at the first time
ReplyDelete70 pt drop on es and hourly divergence goes thru the roof. good luck dropping it 200 pts
ReplyDeletemight be crazy but i think it's an ideal place to add shorts
ReplyDeleteKrasi Nasdaq , I see from 12500 wave 1, 2, 3, 4 so we have to see wave 5?
ReplyDeleteAt the s&p I see wave 5 of C, what do you say?
ReplyDeleteThere is no impulses only zig-zags
DeleteNew ATHs acomin'
ReplyDeleteThis definitely will put the nail in the coffin for this rally.
Deleteanother higher high will have good divergence unless its 200 pts tomorrow. weekly says more to go without a sudden strong downturn, and tops have been a week long at least
Deletegood to see everyone is bullish. wave 3 starts tonight on NQ
ReplyDeleteThat's my impression too. One thing I noticed was sp500 and nq are moving a little closer this time compare to mid feb.
DeleteLet's see what ECB has to announce.
do you think wave three down?
ReplyDeleteNo, I do not see impulse.
DeleteI see this updated hourly chart with the double zig-zag - https://ibb.co/h2vLQGh
ReplyDeleteRunning correction for the d-wave will explain why the indicators are showing 20d low on 14.04.
And with one more high we will have the only missing ingredient for a top - market breadth indicators with short term divergence.
for some of your url's the chart cannot be found. is there something i can do to see the chart? one of the last 4 charts i can see, the other 3 not.
DeleteSo a new ATH acomin'. I rest my case!
ReplyDeleteKrasi, the movement from the beginning looks like an ABC AB=CD in 4400
ReplyDeleteTuesday was 5w low?
ReplyDeleteThe suspicion at the moment possible 10w low and double top like the high last year.
DeleteThink so as well and expect higher high. In this case shortly bottom shall be massaged in.
Deletebuh bye!!!!
ReplyDeleteThis is it, the 25 point drop we've all been waiting for!
ReplyDeletelook at tech go! there is no bottom!
DeleteIn last 15 minutes, there was lot of fight between bulls and bear. Tomorrows open will likely be gap in any direction.
DeleteLOL. Nice call Roberto.
Deleteyou're right it's so bullish!
Deleteand in fact it was bullish
DeleteRegarding Bitcoin, everyone is still bullish on it but didn't we have an ending diagnol from late Jan? Triple weekly bearish divergence on that makes me wonder if the rug has already been pulled.
ReplyDeleteI think, rug is already pulled for Bitcoin. Completed A wave down (5-3-5). Right now in B wave up, should go around 55k around early to mid week. Then 5 waves down to complete C wave. This will complete higher degree A wave.
Deleteany question of whether this market is ready to just roll over should be answered today
ReplyDeleteFriday,these days, show fairly aggressive moves higher before close. Any reason why?
ReplyDelete4220 in the card
ReplyDeletedave bannister calling for 4278, so you may as well set the alert on your chart now. he is almost always right
ReplyDeleteI do not care about experts with magic numbers.
Deletei know it. maybe your readers' minds are not so closed. here is what you miss: you are in bulgaria? this is a US market. if you were in the US you would experience what i am. things are improving, getting busy, going back to normal. regardless of it being priced in, while there is so much activity then there is optimism. weather is turning better, spring is here. people are optimistic about the future. this sentiment will not turn a dime just for your technical analysis. you misjudge sentiment. its not time yet.
DeleteIt's not just Krasi saying it though. Neely is in California. Ray Dalio is in NYC. Harry Dent is on Mars. They all think this market is bananas.
Deletei think it follows the current conditions: $120 billion a month. when the fed tapers, it ends.
Deletethere are as many 'experts' calling it the other way too. carl futia has been right so far about the turn and run to 4500. ciovacco is a perma bull, has been right for years. hussman has been wrong now for 12 years.
DeleteAll you are looking for is excuses to be bullish - sorry to disappoint you it will end like the previous rally.
DeleteAll this "experts" never so correction and they will never see one. It is easier to repeat it will go up.
im just looking at stochastic daily and weekly. its not a top yet.
DeleteAre you nuts? Everyone was calling for the last pullback. Avi, CNBC, etc. Do a simple Google search. They were just smart enough to ride it up. You've been calling for 2200 (which is now 3000K) for over a year now. Pointless.
DeleteSRP Members have witnessed a track record which has outperformed the SP 500 Index over 12 to 1 since inception in September 2013 and we list our entire track record of closed out trades on the website, updated quarterly.
ReplyDeletehis numbers ARE magic.
As amazing as it sounds his prediction of the s&p going to 5200 by early next means the whole indices will more than doubled in value in the space of 2 years alone (2400 to 5200). If he's right, then something insane is happening in this world.
Deleteits a measure of devaluation of the dollar and search for yield perhaps
Deletethe market doubled from 1995 to 1997, and tripled to 2000. not without precedent
DeleteYou live in a fantasy world... good luck. All the lame excuses why it should go higher - it will not.
Deleteis it going down or up? just reading the chart in front of me and daytrading
Deleteim seeing higher highs and higher lows, right translated cycles. one after another. until that changes, my bias has to be buy the dip, sell divergence. but divergence is only once price goes higher, so nothing to short until higher highs.
DeleteAs Nelly said, he don't know when we finish wave B, he knows what will happen after, he has 2 scenario
ReplyDeleteWhat are the 2 scenarios?
DeleteKrasi, 16-04 10d high and yesterday 10d low?
ReplyDelete10d is too short to follow on the daily chart... I would say 20.04 was 10d/20d low.
Delete4200 or 4208 today?
ReplyDelete4195.83 new very marginally higher high
Deletetwo twitter worth following:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/verniman?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/vader7x?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Comment section is frothy
ReplyDeletelol so true. but that is nice. lots of ideas.
DeleteThe Euro seems to have broken a massive multi-year trend line against the dollar in recent weeks. The dollar could be seriously weakened because of it. Any thoughts, Krasi?
ReplyDelete