Trading cycle - buy signal, closes below and above MA10, RSI crossed the MA but still holding the trend line.
I have adjusted the lows and highs, this makes more sense.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - two versions of double top - the bullish outcome is to see a decline for a bigger corrective pattern a-b-c green. The bearish outcome is if we see a few more days higher this will complete double zig-zag c-wave of a bigger a-b-c red.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(red) classic EW, but there is no impulses just more zig-zags. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow). Waiting for the market's final strokes to complete the picture.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is close to completion. After the top expect 8-10 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be. It is not much different than 2019 - two zig-zags with sideways correction in the middle for 40w low. The last acceleration phase is completed - the second leg of the second zig-zag. They even have the same shape and length 7 weeks just the red week alternates where it appears. Now only the topping phase is missing. In 2020 this was 20w low now this is most likely 10w low so I expect less than 4 weeks topping.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower some with divergences, other working on the missing short term divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - ready to turn lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and working on a divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - trying to push higher and preparing for short term divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range with divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d low or if it is the bigger double top Tuesday-Wednesday next week. No perfect model to follow the high-low sequence.... the best I see at the moment is this shown on the chart. If it is the right one this is 10w low the next one making higher high for double top and reversing.
Next week we will know more when we see the price action.
Week 25 for the 40w cycle. Now the early March low looks better as 20w low. It is much easier to watch the 40w cycle - in 8-10 weeks it will be in the middle of the 32-36 week window for a low. This is all we need to know.
The 40w high is in the middle of this range already - this is week 34, waiting to see the double top how long it will take.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
One more week and higher high needed for completed TD sequential on the weekly chart.
here is what is missing, and i think its important. every single top going back at least to 2019 has occurred at a stochastic daily top. i counted 24 of them. stochastic currently is in a trough. to me, this looks like 125-200 points up very soon spx to create the stochastic top. spx has not topped on a sideways consolidation triangle in a very long time.
ReplyDeletethis was a pull back in time and not price. krasi i appreciate your blog.
DeleteBuy a pair of glasses, stochastic is a top with divergence - exactly how the it should look like at a high.
Deletethis is either a forum for exchange of ideas, or insults. i hope it is the former not the latter. the stochastic behavior i am referring to is that on a daily, spx has bounced from a 61 stochastic and is now pointing upward. if price repeats the nov thru january pattern, or has already pivoted upward, then it can easily go up to a 90 stochastic reading and set another rounding top, as has been the pattern for over a year. that is what i am trying to point out, amid your insults. i would rather short at a topping stochastic. i cannot trust that it has topped and is heading down when such a mild pull back has produced such a deep drop in stochastic.
Deletemy concern stated above was answered by the charts this week. spx indeed set an all time high at a stochastic high this week. that was an excellent opp to short. it was what i was waiting for.
DeleteThanks, Krasi. My work currently favors bullish scenario depicted on your intermediate chart. In May and summer volatility shall return
ReplyDeleteWe will know around FOMC - if it goes higher or lower will tell us which one will be.
Delete+ some macro info if someone is interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKZ_sywKclo
ReplyDeleteThe experts with magic numbers. Like Krasi said it's all about to be over. Drop off is coming. People will be destroyed. Be ready. Thanks Krasi for the knowledge. You still 1/3 short? I'm about to add more.
ReplyDeleteYes I am, if we see lower into FOMC I will place a stop at small profit.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdF6W8GE-zc&ab_channel=SentientTraderVideo
ReplyDeleteBasically saying 18m cycle low will be a couple 100 points - yikes
ReplyDeleteWrote about this - cycle guys have no clue about pattern.
DeleteThey were saying the same last year. When the cycle is strong right translated all they can say is it will continue. This works when the market is trending. In sideways correction it is not working.
What part of this melt up do you consider "sideways correction"?
DeleteThe part that it is corrective and since 2018 every rally is met with bigger decline making lower lows - this happened twice already. Maybe you are from those blind which do not see the lower lows.
DeleteWhich part of this melt up do you consider a "trend"?
starting at spx 61 looks pretty convincing...
Deleteand every decline has been met with a bigger rally making higher highs,-this has happened 469 times already. it depends on how you look at it.
DeleteYou should probably take a view like David Hunter, Krasi where he thinks it will drop 50-60% but that there is still a melt up to happen first. To 45-4700. No point fighting what is obvious in the short term. Cut out your short-term analysis, they make you lose credibility!
ReplyDeleteThe melt ups are over. The analysis of such experts has zero trading value. You need time and pattern and they are telling what is obvious - the market is topping.
DeleteHe was saying it was melting up from when it was 3800 even, calling it to go to 4400+. Right so far!
ReplyDeleteYou say 2700 down
ReplyDelete;)
Guru
dave at srp weekly newsletter is out. he is looking for 4260 and in 3 months 4620.
ReplyDeletehis weekly newsletter is free just sign up. he is about a 74% lifetime trader, uses elliott wave. he has this as a wave 3 from the march lows.
Delete"he has this as a wave 3 from the march lows" - this is what the world of trading needs another EW clown who can not make a difference between impulse and zig-zag.
Deletebitcoin bottoming, europe reopening, us market firing on 8 cylinders. watch out
ReplyDeleteThis is how the markets make tops when everything looks great. watch out
DeleteYou are in full sheeple mode running with the herd feeling save - good luck with that.
ReplyDeleteIn psychology there is something called peer(group) pressure, there is interesting studies. This does not work with me.
Obviously you was not around last year when the pressure in form of comments was ten times bigger - my answer to the herd was clear f**k off.
Back then and now you want to convince me to obey the herd because everybody say so... this will make you feel better - it will not happened.
My answer to the herd and all the EW clowns with third waves and all the funnymental clowns how the economy is great and all the experts throwing around magic numbers without a clue is the same - f**k off.
https://youtu.be/3-oJt_5JvV4 :)
ReplyDeletesome selling perhaps into close, we'll see - baaa baaa
Deletebaaaa baaaaa
DeleteNeely out with an update. Down leg then a final higher leg to complete B.
ReplyDeleteCredit to him for adjusting his count to reflect reality.
Who says he is right and this is the reality? Time is telling different story.
DeleteThe EW guys have the opposite problem - they have no clue about time.
Neely count could go higher as he said, but he's also saying "below 3853 cash and bull market is OVER." He's smart to have both just in case everything drops before the next Monday update.
DeleteI guess we will see who is right in the end!
Deleteneely 1 or neely 2? I've subscribed to both
Deletenq long was a great trade today. rty will break out and take markets up another leg
ReplyDeleteI am big believer that cycles should follow the sequence high-low and it is not possible to have two highs/lows without a low/high in the middle.
ReplyDeleteWith that said my short term cycle chart above is wrong and this is the right sequence of lows and highs - https://invst.ly/uljdc
break out!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRdHRjIyvwk&ab_channel=TheKendallReport
ReplyDeletehigher!
Why bother with short term noise, this will drift higher until it explodes lower. Don't know why people do these short term wave counts, no one ever gets them right.
ReplyDeleteagree with that - the pattern has morphed into a rising wedge , which might crack today or might go on for a few more days . The eventual waterfall would normally be c200pts in a few days so bears are unlikely to get on board . Hurst cycles looking for a low mid next week , so that's one option for sure
ReplyDelete20 pts es and it hits oversold on hourly. gonna be hard to drop this until the btd crowd is exhausted
ReplyDeleteGoog up 5% post earnings - faang taking this all the way up to the moon!
ReplyDeleteQuick look at the futures shows that no one cares about google.
DeleteDoesn't matter, " the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves." Who knew?
Deleteyeah, since then its been a horrible 900 point drop upward. i understand how you mean it in an elliott count, but when down is up, then sumting wong.
DeleteFB following GOOG higher. New ATHs. Reckon we will see 4500 now before a correction.
DeleteI sure am glad the bull market ended in 2018. I would have hated to miss out :)
ReplyDeleteit seems once the earnings euphoria in big names is out of the way, markets are vulnerable SHOULD there be any negative catalyst.
ReplyDeletethe buyback black out will be/is lifted tho
DeleteExpecting a top Mid-May. I am looking at COVID stocks that spiked at the same time as VIX last year and they haven't bottomed yet. Specifically APT.
ReplyDeleteKrasi has been calling for a top for the than a month and anybody who has a differing view he looks down on. It's one thing to be wrong it's another to be arrogant.
Of course I will be arrogant the sheeple show up and tell me to obey the mob and join the herd.
DeleteThe same crap like last year and my answer is the same like last year.
I listen to my tools and I do not give a shit about all the experts including Neely, which pattern I follow.
Lies will be deleted top is at the 18 month high not at the 40 week.
DeleteQuoting 10 different experts how there is more up so there must be something wrong with my analysis is exactly the same crap like last year - obey the mob you are wrong.
It will not happen I do not give a shit about the herd and experts.
If some one does not like my analysis is free not to read them.
always enjoy reading your analysis. the exchange of viewpoints is what makes the comment section good.
DeleteFinally some short term divergences on Krasi's set of breadth indicators....
ReplyDeleteThe market chose the bearish path heading into 20d high with divergence.
DeleteWith high probability the top is behind us and we see double top like last year with some indices making higher high some not.
Powell will pump it, Biden will dump it.
ReplyDeleteRight!
DeleteMy problem is the vix, 20 is strong resistance
ReplyDeleteno changes from Powell, so when do they tighten? at 2200?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteSomeone help me. How do you make money from all of this? Serious question. I have followed for a year and no way anyone is beating the market or probably making anything. Might actually be losing. Someone show me evidence that this analysis works? Should be simple to show. Poor Krasi trades on a 10 day moving average. That shits old as hell. A simple backtest shows it doesn't even beat the market. You would do better to buy and hold which Krasi calls sheep and stupid. Seriously, you have a weekly post for a year. Show me the trades that went along with this magically system?
ReplyDeleteI have followed for 2 years now. You have to wait for confirmations. Basically, stay long because we are in an uptrend until you see real confirmations. Then move swiftly into shorts. I don't know what Krasi does during the times he is looking for tops, but it's only when you get a confirmations that you actually short. Then you can catch those swift 2020 down moves. We are very close to anther one of those tops now, but we need a confirmation.
Deletei am on a couple discords and they use order flow analysis and bookmap.com software.
DeleteIt is not just MA10 cross... there is two components analysis and trigger. There is trade when both are in agreement.
DeleteYou can analyze as much as you want, but if there is no MA10 cross(trigger) something is wrong with the analysis.
The trigger can be activated, but if the analysis says it is not the right moment there is no trade.
Good example is the last few months when we saw several MA10 crosses, but I wrote to ignore them because the time window for the 18 month high has not been reached.
Now we are in this time window and I am writing do not ignore the next cross.
Most of the time you watch for 5w/10w/20w lows to add more or just hold and do nothing. At 20w/40w highs you can take partial profits if you want and add at the subsequent 20w/40w low.
I do not see a problem just holding between the 40w low November and the 18 month high now.
Hope this is clear....
So, in your opinion, when do we leave this high window time? What is the date when you say the top never came and now we have something else going on?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletethe score so far is guru's 4, krasi 0
ReplyDeleteA stopped clock is right twice a day springs to mind!
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/NYA/PX5WOIi2-nyse/
ReplyDeletethe nyse is the broadest index with exception to wilshire. it shows resistance still higher
All indices are bright green but so many stocks in red. Krasi, did you get stopped or are you still short?
ReplyDeleteI hold my speculative 1/3 short. I do not see a reason to close it when the indices chose the bearish scenario - second chart touched the green lines and reversed.
DeleteWeak 20d cycle is making a high. My opinion cycle high mid-April with price high now like last year.
Over the last 20 years May has mostly been choppy and June down. I would except the same. I don't see the drop you see though.
ReplyDeleteYou have a big zig-zag - the question is part of what pattern is this zig-zag?
DeleteNeely says expanding triangle the other option is wave 1 of ED so at least 50% retracement.
Forget your perception, it does not matter - show me EW pattern. Doing nothing and continuation makes zero sense because there is no pattern to fit with this.
I go with the wave 1 of ED which should be followed by a wave 2 50%-61% retrace into summer. We'll see. Thank you for your work.
DeleteJP
I can't use EW. It's simply untradeable IMO. I'm just going off the monster trend line from the 2020 low which would be at 4125. Below there it's see 4K trendline where I would be looking to long. Until these clearly break I don't see the point in stressing about short. Plenty to made below it but I think its a ways off. Just IMO on the last line. When it breaks it breaks.
ReplyDeleteTech earnings have been beyond fantastic and yet look at the charts today. If it's not a warning I don't know what is.
ReplyDeletedont blink. ath's coming
DeleteLook at Wykoff distribution models, then look at how most of big tech has been for the last 6 months.
Deleteinstitutional distribution for 2 hours at the open and then 22 hours of btd
ReplyDeleteKrasi, i think on one wave up.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, do you have stop for the short?
ReplyDeleteShort term chart it looks like another double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/umxyt
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is day 10 so almost complete pattern in the time window for 20d high.
one big ugly negative news event now will do the trick. prices on the edge of the trend line up. amzn should reverse back to gap fill tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteamzn did gap fill
Deletealso big character change now in globex after hours. its usually up up up. getting more interesting now.
ReplyDeletevix close to break out from wedge...a close above 19 might do the trick...
ReplyDeleteWas hoping for a double top in the comment section
ReplyDelete