Weekly preview

The market chose the bearish path topping and double top with divergences - normal this is the high for the move from the March low.

I had a mistake in the short term cycle chart, the high-low sequence was wrong now it is corrected. It is showing the same setup like the previous top - the cycle top was mid-April(like January 2020) and now we are seeing the price top. As I wrote last week this double top is of lower cycle degree so the topping should take 2 weeks instead of 4. By the way not all indices are making new highs as in February last year.


TRADING
Trading cycle - still above MA10, but the index looks very tired.... RSI is below the MA with divergences. The analysis is pointing to important high so it is time to be cautious.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - continued higher for double top into the area of several Fibo projections. It looks like completion of this red a-b-c.
The bullish case is expanded flat a-b-c green, than the crucial level is 4100. It should not move below it if this is only sideways pullback.... I doubt this.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(red) classic EW, but there is no impulses just more zig-zags. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow).
Again the trend line is around 4100 and it should hold for bullish outcome. I think it will be broken and MA50 will be tested.

Long term - the move from March 2020 should be completed. I expect 7-9 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - now looking ready for a top.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but weak with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergence and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower multiple divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d high waiting for confirmation on Monday. This 20d cycle seems very weak especially if you look other indices like NDX,DJ,DAX so I expect turn lower into cycle low of higher degree. The 20d lows - I have the feeling the current 10w cycle counts better with three longer 20d cycles instead of 4x20d cycles.
Corrected the high-low sequence and it is showing the top in mid-April.

Week 26 for the 40w cycle. I am big believer that the high-low sequence should be obeyed, which means the 40w cycle high was mid-April at week 33.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have the higher high and completed TD sequential on the weekly chart, now waiting for price flip.