Trading trigger - buy signal, still above MA10. RSI is testing the trend line so expect to see sell trigger soon.
Analysis - sell signal, we have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another messy pattern either double zig-zag or simple zig-zag with c as ED currently in wave 4 of it.
Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses. RSI resetting higher to the down sloping trend line, the usual behavior after vertical decline away from it. There is minimum one more leg lower before we can think of completed correction.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 5-7 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are in sell mode barely reacting.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting higher after sligthly oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - bounce a little bit from 70, but very weak.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - testing 75, but very weak.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing with a zig-zag lower and higher low so far.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - waiting for the 5w high and turn lower into 5w low.
Trying to count the cycle highs is very difficult in the last 6 weeks - there is a reason why in Hurst cycle theory there is no high-to-high analysis:) The reason is if you sum cycles with different lengths they all will make a bottom at the same time, but highs at different time. The bottom is event clear visible, the top is process taking time and sometimes messy.
Week 30 for the 40w cycle. RSI broke below the MA, but still at support from one of the trend lines now trying to test the brake. We are seeing the turn lower into 18m low.
Good to see you admit there will only be a move down to 3000 give or take and not 2200. Can get behind that!
ReplyDeleteOne question, can C waves be so much shorter than B waves? Thought they were always longer!
ReplyDeleteAh I see it will be a b wave down if it hits the 3000 area only. Not a C wave.
ReplyDeleteOnce the ball is rolling downhill, nobody knows where it will stop. But, as I've said before if its going down as deep a 3000, it would be unusual (not impossible) for it to not fill those multiple large gaps down to 2300. Markets don't like to leave large unfilled gaps.
ReplyDeleteYou have my compliments. The 10-15% down turn is there. Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteMy cycle analysis is showing the same btw. I have change the link.
DeleteIsn't the green line more like 25% drawdown?
DeleteWhat link did you change???
DeleteI am talking about time.
DeleteThe link to his page on the right side "Turn Dates"
stochastic on es and nq topping now. i will scale in short nq.
ReplyDeletelooks like es making a run for ath's
ReplyDeleteDefinitely up before lower, 4300+ here we come!
ReplyDeleteKrasi, I think 25-05 was 20d high and 27-05 20d low
ReplyDeleteIt is impossible to confirm it... only in hindsight.
DeleteExpect this small decline to continue for another session, maybe two . To me , the b wave could then have a proper retest of the spx highs or more likley new ath's , giving scope for a final dollar low too .
ReplyDeleteSo be no surprise if the next weekend update is still looking for the turn , which may stretch out for 1 or 2 more weeks into mid June .
selling the new york morning decline and waiting for globex session to move it up overnight. selling is too light.
ReplyDeletenyse new ath today
ReplyDeleteNot very helpful the indicators look bad.
DeleteHi Krasi, two weeks ago we conversed about the Dax looking good for reversal similar to what you are predicting for SP500. Does the new ATH on DAX yesterday change anything? Appreciate your thoughts
ReplyDeleteNot much, moved the a-wave low now US and EU have synchronized 10 week low. I see this two zig-zags a-b instead of triangle b - https://invst.ly/v007h
DeleteSo how will the analysis change yet again if we hit a new ATH? I thought a new ATH would not fit into your analysis? This is what you said a few weeks ago. I get that it changes. A year ago you thought it was topping. At what point is this thing dead or does it always change so it's never dead? The analysis just changes after the fact. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNo change the analysis stays the same the cycle top was in April now we see secondary top and ATH will not change anything.
Deleteomg this tight range is a drag
ReplyDeleteYes, 7-th week this is 10 week high.... waiting for the turn lower this or next week.
DeleteCycles - I think the picture is getting no more clear. I see this - https://invst.ly/v0ag1
ReplyDeleteIf this is the case we should see another 2-5 days to complete this 10w cycle.
Should be enough time to tank most hedge funds who are short certain stocks
Deletetoday is 20 days low?
ReplyDeleteIt seems so on the chart posted above day 11 instead of 10 and the rest is the same.
DeleteBest odds is that the small decline this week was all or some of wave 4. If done , then 5 to new all time highs coming next week.
ReplyDeleteIf that plays out , the new high could be marginal or it could be another 1-3% . History of the last few years is that it goes higher than you can imagine , so will be interesting to watch .
i like ur count.
Deletewhat a great opportunity to get short!!!!
ReplyDeleteSnp, are you serious or being sarcastic? You have been bullish so just checking.
Deleteserious. extended moves will pull back, moves on news are almost always completely reversed within days, and regardless of continued easy money fed policy being more certain, the jobs number will be re evaluated next week as bad news. nfp fridays are always up regardless of the news.
Deleteits also a divergent high
Deletemay 7 was the most recent nfp friday. look at the next 3 trade days after it.
Deleteup monday down into the 9th hard then up to 4300
ReplyDeleteisee it but yu dont think we test the high first?
ReplyDeletewe are on a friday no volume at all so it is easy for the banks to unleach a buying spree in the last 10 minutes like usual with an all time high to finish the week in beauty
ReplyDelete4k buying opportunity as excepted. I tried to warn this blog but no one listened. Some even shorted. Sigh. You'll get a better chance mid June.
ReplyDeletethey tried but they failed ,so next episode on monday
ReplyDeleteYou know the old mantra.... everyone's a genius in a bull market.
ReplyDeleteDude you new here? "Long term - the bull market completed in 2018"- Krasi 2020-2021
DeleteNope, I've been here a while. Obviously, you don't understand how to use this blog. There is theory, which Krasi does every week, and then there is trading which is defined by Krasi as breaking the 10 MA. He is short now because it hit his criteria, but most of the time he isn't trading on just his theory. We will see what happens, it hasn't made a new high yet.
Deletewhy don't uou get an identity like using a moniker so we know the unknown we are dealing with
ReplyDeleteWhat is there to understand? Your saying we are in a bull market. Krasi has said for over a year the bull market ended. So your wrong and apparently don't understand his blog.
ReplyDeleteYou really don't understand how this works. Why are you even here? If you're so smart you should be secure enough to be hanging out at other blogs instead of trying to feel superior. When you take the time to understand the theory here, then you can sound intelligent. I use this blog for "what ifs". The market is going up and I trade that way, but I need to look out for the confirmations of when this bubble actually pops. There are criteria's.
DeleteThere is no bull market. "Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves." Not hard to understand. That's from March 13 2021.
ReplyDeletethere is always one year between hypothesis ansd reality , check around September 21 1999 and september 6 2000, then october 7 2007 and september 15 2008 , January 25 2018 and November 26 2018
Deleteand then February 10 2020 and June 10 2021
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ReplyDeleteLook out below because the joystick that trips the market with no volume, at all time highs to infinity, which is controlled by the way by Central Banks and their acolytes the banks is about to break. The volume will be huge to the downside ,coming very soon . It will mark the passage to a new era
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ReplyDeletesorry unknown , you are a bear like me, i checked your posts before.
ReplyDeleteso let say that according to me monday is the last date for a top
check what i have said before between May 24 and May 27