Trading trigger - buy. Still above MA10. RSI is playing around with MA and the trend line not showing much strength.
Analysis - sell, we have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - ugly b/B and now c/B running. There is already one zig-zag up with a=c, but it is too short - time and size compared to a/B so I guess it is a/c/B and we will see another double zig-zag to complete c/B. As long as it stays above 4190 this is the plan.
Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses. The same story the indicators are resetting higher before a move lower.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 4-6 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed, some turned up, but I do not think this is buy signal.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower highs short term and intermediate term.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up .
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - doing nothing.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - hanging around 75 and doing nothing.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this sideways move is taking very long so the indices are close to 10w high. So far we have the minimum 9 days for the last 20d cycle high, it could take another 2-3 days.
There is two options - high in May and now 5w high or high in April and now 10w high.
If you look at the weekly chart below you will see that this is week 31 or another 4-6 weeks for a 40w low with average length. This makes the option 18m high in April more likely - it will take less time. The other option will need much longer somewhere in the middle you need 1-2 weeks for 10w high and it will take more time.
This is another confirmation that the cycle high was mid-April right on schedule. I have explained last week about the cycle highs if someone wonders why this strange looking cycle high analysis.
Week 31 for the 40w cycle.
keep on Krasi , i love uou
ReplyDeletethank you for the posting.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work! We are now in the last up. Expecting Monday near the open of Wall Street we get the highest High and this high we do not see again for 10-15 years. Can you replace the link "Turn Dates" in this one? https://twitter.com/Willem82457275
ReplyDeleteI have replaced the link last week.
DeleteSorry. I am to busy with more than 20 indicators on the end game. But 4 important end 5 normal indicators are turning Monday down. That is the high for the SPX for the next 10-15 years
DeleteWillem, how can anyone predict such a thing? No indicator will likely provide such information. Can you throw some light on your theory?
DeleteYep, from the analysis I follow it is game over in 2 weeks. 2200 might be the minimum. Top is in for a few decades. Krasi tried to warn you. Thank you for your service to the average guy Krasi. You will be blessed by trying to warn the sheep. Last year was luck for them. You better be fully short to the 2K area for your families.
ReplyDeletethose are bold lower targets! i will gladly take 3950 tho.
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, really appreciate your work. Do you follow Nifty50? Any views in that? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIf it ever comes to 2K, how much tome do you think it takes to rebound from March 2020 experience? Literally few days IMO , that's as simple as a week's worth of us going on vacation and looking back.
ReplyDeleteIf you understand at a high level , FED clearly knows the picture and can't let markets fall in any case.
I think you assume: 1. The FED can actually control the market. Influence? Yes. Control? No. 2. The FED has the same power it had just a year ago. It doesn't and it won't.
DeleteAs I've mentioned before, once the ball starts rolling down hill, there are major gaps that need to be filled down to 2300. It's not a matter of "if" but, "when".
Agree with you. Lets say if SPX drops to 2k may be this year or few years from now, don't you think Govt will do similar money printing and take markets back up? . So as an investor why do I need to worry?
DeleteBlackrock must have engineered all such crash models and actions and I'm sure FED/Govt working with them.
I think we are coming to the end of the power of the Central Bank. It's a case of diminishing returns. The endless printing of fiat money is not something that can go on forever because eventually everything has to revert back to its actual value. Whether that time is today or 2 years from now, I have no idea.
DeleteUSD cycles point to 2025 for a bottom. I'm sure this euphoria in markets go on for next 4 years. Once USD Cycle is up , yes, that's when markets struggle in a deflationary environment for 4-5 more years and final move to 2029-2030 will be a heavy correction time IMO.
DeleteYes, we might get a 20% correction in few more years, but that's just another buy the dip for late party joiners.
This's a well known game, if you're a wallstreeter!!!
new ath's dax, cac, nyse
ReplyDeleteStill lots of short squeezes coming over the next few weeks. The apes are on the hunt.
Deleteat this rate of decline it will take 220 trading days to reach 2200
ReplyDeletedecline was erased, so scratch that. its gonna take some real inflation fear on cpi numbers to do anything this week, or a black swan out of no where. this is close to a summer long melt up like 2017.
DeleteNo way, Krasi said by July we will be below 3K in the comments awhile back. Cycles aren't wrong.
Deletethen i repeat myself, this will have to be an unforeseen event. there is zero fear in the is market and sentiment is headed the other way.
DeleteAll those 18m high videos on YouTube are nearly two months old at this stage. Still no sign of going down! Cycles seem not to be working either!
Deletekrasi, elliott trader shows this count based on the spy exceeding the high:
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/06/tiny-spy-and-breaking-rules.html
do you have an opinion?
nasdaq making a great effort toward new highs, rty as well
ReplyDeleteKeep telling ye, 3400+ before down. Simples.
ReplyDelete3400?
DeleteYe sees it as 4300
Delete4400+ obviously.
DeleteNQ turned its intra month trend up . New highs in spx looked likely last week , now more likely still.
ReplyDeleteGood odds on an NQ double top from here , which would drag spx towards 4260/70 .
Timing wise , another 4-6 sessions should be enough . Bit more patience ...
long term daily indexes ym, nyse, es, dax, ftse, rty, nq all with the same pattern looking very tired. could the cpi release be the trigger event?
ReplyDeletethe answer is no, its bullish
ReplyDeleteIt was just consolidation before continuing higher.
ReplyDelete4300+ was always on the cards.
ReplyDeleteNew ATH as expected. It could go to 4330 but I think it's running out of steam in time for mid June pullback.
ReplyDeletekrasi's call is still valid so far. its a few points, but overall this could still be topping.
ReplyDeleteThere is no could it IS topping.
Deletebet you didnt think it would take 5 weeks...
DeleteNQ was the tell this week as it turned its trend back up .Been a good week for NQ longs .
ReplyDeleteMight get a small wave 4 today before more new highs early next week . NQ looking for a double top at min and , as posted , that should drag spx up to the 4260 area . Conversely , INDU may have topped .
Intending to put shorts on as NQ reaches the 14050/100 area and see what happens from there . Worst case is we have another larger 4/5 to come into late June . In some ways cycles could support a later June high as you normally see a 4-6 week rally off the (May)low , but I'm hoping not .
It is either over or today 4260 and it is over - two Fibo measurements point to this level.
DeleteThere is a small rising wedge inside a larger rising wedge on the hourly SPX. The small wedge has broken already, now just waiting on the larger wedge to break.
DeleteAs long as it gets to 14050/100 min I won't mind .....for me Monday or Tues , but only the market knows...
ReplyDelete