Trading trigger - buy. Still above MA10, but I expect a turn lower soon.
Analysis - sell. We have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as expected we are seeing another double zig-zag to complete c/B. Interesting is Fibo targets for three different degrees of waves converge together around 4260. Next week the B-wave should be completed followed by decline for the C-wave
Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses. Nothing new to add - double top and time for a decline.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 4-6 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be. This long sideways phase points to the a-b green scenario.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change weakness the oscillators are turning lower.
McClellan Oscillator - series of lower highs short term and intermediate turn.
McClellan Summation Index - buy ssignal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turning lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - as expected several days needed to complete the 20d and 10w cycle high. Next is decline into 5w low.
Week 14/32 for the 20w/40w cycle.
thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi, I wonder how high we have to go before we give up on this hypothesis.
ReplyDeleteIt is not a hypothesis so there is nothing to give up.
DeleteIt is pretty obvious what is going on.
Krasi, as I said a long time ago, the first ABC is 1200 point so why the second ABC are going to 4400?
ReplyDeleteIt is not clear what you are asking.
DeleteLook at the third chart, from the beginning, the first ABC is 1200 point, don't you think the second ABC will be the same? 1200 point from 1200
ReplyDeleteNo time is up and corrective patterns do not repeat the previous one up was a-b-c with a=c.
DeleteP.S. The first leg is 1300 points not 1200
your absolutely right again!! Its falling!!! No it just made an all time new high.
DeleteThanks
ReplyDeletetime may be up, as it was 5 weeks ago. it still needs a trigger event or it will just keep grinding.
ReplyDeletei would be surprised if es does not reach 4300 judging by daily rsi
ReplyDeletefor me, SPY puts for July 23 is the way to go, and they will be cheaper as TLT is climbing and VXX or VIX if you wish, are going lower. The only thing is the penalty for SPY dividends, scheduled for June 18, which will be included in the price you will pay higher for the puts . Out of the money are cheaper and probably more rewarding than in the money puts.
Deleteas to where it will turn, initially I thought June 7, but i am inclined to think now it will be on June 17 after the usual bullshit higher after the federal reserve meeting on June 16
DeleteIt does not mean i will wait for that date for taking the puts I talked about, because it might be too late to test if all this bullshit to the most extreme hypothesis will be right, according to me, and when VXX or VIX starts climbing higher, it will be rapidly very onerous to take medium dated puts
DeleteReady to pull the trigger on those puts anytime from here and June 17 and I think the next few days might unleash Hell
Deletenew ath this AM on spx fwiw
ReplyDeletelooks like new ath's on cac dax and ftse
ReplyDeleteI think you can say INDU is done ...NQ still might need a stab at 14100 or maybe a bit more , so a few more days possible .
ReplyDeleteHow do people on this site think breaking all time high is bearish is beyond me. Do you guys ever make money consistently? Nasdaq has gone up 600 points in past week. That is not bearish. Wake up.
ReplyDeleteYes, it is beyond you. It is too much for you to understand it. Do not worry the market will wake you up.
DeleteUm...when?
DeleteIt is written above this week.
DeleteThe futures look like simple zig-zag with the c-wave as ED - https://invst.ly/v584d
ReplyDeleteThe same Fibo measurement, the target has been reached and now it looks like the ED is done and the price is breaking lower.
Watch if the last up move four 4h bars is retraced in less time currently 2 bars.
Delete"nah way NDX just made new highs that's bullish, this analysis is stupit" lol
Deletebeware, I think Krasi is right on the spot and that everybody, i mean everybody is on the same side of the boat so it will collapse. Panic reaction like on the Titanic will follow.
Deletethis federal meeting tomorrow will bring some uncertainty, maybe not after 14 h p.m. est because it is always choreographed to go higher, but in the following days. I do not think Powell is enough Poker face, not to bring serious interrogations, if not tomorrow, watch thereafter
DeleteI mean those in the “know of things” know that stock market highs with no volume at all, means that no one is selling now. But slowly they will start to sell altogether like a gang of lemmings jumping from a cliff edge, because everyone is doing it, with nothing under them. Then you will see the rapid pick up in volume, that means that after considerations, everyone is going to sell at the same time!!!!!
Deletethose who have been completely berated and are suffering from this madness, enjoy!
ReplyDeleteindexes may head back up overnight, 4 hr charts bottomed
ReplyDeleteWow! NDX price really falling like you said. NOT. Its rising nicely. Again you guys are fools talking volume and some BS EW wave. Is the point to make money or just to sit around and tell each other how smart you guys are while going broke. Its very funny. I am getting your money while you talk your self into a big short position. Why don't you just let someone invest for you? At least you will make 8-10% a year.
ReplyDeleteGood example for stupidity in a month we will not hear a sound from the "expert".
DeleteAll the chatter aside, why is it that all these indicators seem to be failing?
ReplyDeleteIt is failing only something in your fantasy. The top was in April right on schedule and two months nothing double top, your favorite NDX 4 months nothing. But in your fantasy they are flying.
DeleteFor those who do not believe in fairy tails - https://invst.ly/v5o1a
ReplyDeleteThe rest you can keep on living in your fantasy world where EW,cycles and indicators do not work.
Krasi, on this count where do you see the doun movement is going to?
ReplyDeleteUsually it is mean reversal which is this trend line.
DeleteTo the line you sign?
ReplyDeleteTech starting the party 🥳🎉
ReplyDeleteparty has been going since last march. you are on the wrong side of the trade if you think a 80 point drop is a big deal after 5000 point rise.
DeleteYesterday 5 weeks low?
ReplyDeleteNo next week.
DeleteAnd this is NYSE - https://invst.ly/v5ycz
ReplyDeleteSince 2000 like a clock every 3.5 we have 4y cycle high. Most likely January.2018 was the 4y high not September and now we have the next 4y high. The 18y high arrives on schedule in 2018 and a new pattern begins.
The pattern shown is Neely's triangles but a/E starting in 2018 and not lasting just 5 weeks.
I am showing the chart because of cycles showing possible 4y high confirming NDX above, the pattern is very complex and can not be confirmed until we see at least three waves of the triangle.
Krasi- What is your position? I remember you had a 2/3 short a couple of weeks ago? Thanks.
DeleteThe same watching today/tomorrow for the final 1/3.
DeleteKrasi, can you give us the long graph of the S&P?
ReplyDeleteIt is the same
DeleteTested the 10ma near the close on spy but couldn't close above it.
ReplyDeleteYes, two closes below MA10 and sell was triggered.
DeleteSo do you still think the nasdaq is going to fall tomorrow or continue grinding higher? At what point would you say that you were wrong and the cycles and the EW is not working. I am curious if there is a point at which you would just change the direction of your trade from short to long.
ReplyDeleteDo you think your the first amateur thinking "I am a genius"?
DeleteI would be millionaire if I get a dollar every time I hear this crap - EW/cycles does not work.
Literally hundreds like you at the previous top and then silence.
Do not worry you will learn it the hard way.
Why not yesterday 5w low?, russell is more clear
ReplyDeleteThe sell signal was activated yesterday I guess a few days lower.
Delete