Trading trigger - sell. Price/RSI broke below the MA and the trend line after day 40(red) right on schedule.
Analysis - sell. We have turn lower into 18 month low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - double zig-zag or according futures simple zig-zag with c-wave as ED was completed and now decline is running. So far is the typical zig-zag shape.
Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Price is starting to brake below the trend line and MA50 and RSI on the verge of breaking the trend line from the March low.
Long term - we should see correction for 4-5 weeks between 10%-15% for 18m cycle low. Pattern adjusted according to the cycle analysis.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak, turned lower and sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very weak plunging lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up after double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - heaing lower after another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it seems we have completed 10w high and next week we should see 5w low.
The longer term cycle the 18m cycle should take control and the highs should be lower highs - I expect pattern similar to the one shown on the chart.
Week 33 for the 40 week cycle. If you look at the RSI it is obviuos that the 20w cycle is turning lower.
In 2018 there were a lof of discussions if the high was in January or September. Now I think January.2018 is the more likely scenario. This means to expect the next 4y high this year. Given the right translated cycle and the next 18m low in a month expect a topping formation similar to 2000/2007. The so called M pattern - the next cycle making slightly higher high and failing.
18 months will be in September ?
ReplyDeleteNo in July
DeleteWhat is your forecast for US10Y?
ReplyDeleteI would say correction until November-December and continuation higher.
DeleteKrasi. what is the target for this correction? wouldnt it be a lower low as shown in your many charts? how can it go higher?
ReplyDeleteAround MA200. We had two months sideways move, which makes lower low unlikely. Expect something like double top probably higher high, but not a guarantee.
DeleteThanks Krasi, Are you saying we get a low in another month or so and then come back up again and make a higher high or double top atleast?
ReplyDeleteThis is what I see at the moment.
DeleteI too am very confused now. I thought the 18m low would be a big drop, not a pathetic 10% correction!
ReplyDeleteWell it will play out differently.
DeleteSo sentiment trader was right so? 18m low would be shallow and not deep.
DeleteWOW, talk about a 360. For a year people have been telling you where this is going. Mainstream, gurus and other analyst. You called them idiots, linear thinking, etc. Telling them to check back in a few months, etc. Now after the fact your saying the same thing they have been saying for a year? Better late than never I guess.
ReplyDeleteYou are right 360 degree means full circle and no change. This is exactly the same b and c wave just taking more time.
DeleteI do not know where this lie comes from that I predicted the top a year ago in the middle of nothing. 18 month high late March-mid April was my forecast and the top is in mid-April.
The people and mainstream is always repeating the same - up forever.
Party time 4300+ 4400+ 4600+ 4700+ - the people with their great analysis worked out great again.
Everybody is so smart throwing some numbers around. Where is your prediction?
The last time the market ripped you apart with your third wave. Disappeared for a year and now back again at the top with the big mouth - typical.
Waiting for your forecast.
"I do not know where this lie comes from that I predicted the top a year ago in the middle of nothing. 18 month high late March-mid April was my forecast and the top is in mid-April."
DeleteI guess because for over a year you've been saying in the process of topping. A reader can simple look at older post for the year and decide for themselves. Don't get mad at me, I didn't say it.
"The people and mainstream is always repeating the same - up forever.
Party time 4300+ 4400+ 4600+ 4700+ - the people with their great analysis worked out great again"
Nope, they all called the big drop in 2020. Most were too early like you. A simple Google search can show you all the shit on CNBC.
"The last time the market ripped you apart with your third wave."
Nope I was already out.
"xyzJan 31, 2020, 6:28:00 PM
Been saying for a year 3330 to 3340 should end 3 while never changing the count. Possible to extend to 3500. 3337 may be the top???? Good luck to all.
Reply
Replies
KrasiFeb 1, 2020, 6:06:00 AM
Chart please... do not forget to come back to explain why you were wrong."
That was from over 1 year ago. What was the high? 3380?? Yes, I missed it by 40 points. If I remember you missed it by a shit ton and since you've been calling a topping process for over a year I guess you missed this by much more. IDK.
"Where is your prediction?"
Iv'e been giving it to you. Don't know how much more clearly I can try and help your readers. Feel free to look back.
Hell I told you two months ago what I see.
"xyzApr 14, 2021, 10:09:00 PM
If we get the breakout 4500+ on higher time frames."
You just kept arguing that we would be below 3K by the end of June. Maybe it could still happen.
Don't worry I'm done giving my ideas to the blog. I will not be coming here anymore. I don't see the point when you stick to the same bullshit over and over. Good luck to all.
"They all called the big drop in 2020" - hahahaha are you on drugs??!?!
Delete"Been saying for a year 3330 to 3340 should end 3" - wrong forecast big time, but nailed the top.
"xyzApr 14, 2021, 10:09:00 PM If we get the breakout 4500+ on higher time frames." - wrong again, two fake break outs because the top was in April.
"Don't worry I'm done giving my ideas to the blog." - your both ideas were wrong, but you have traded something else ooooook.
Why should I follow your ideas when they are wrong and you are doing something else??!??
Why I am posting the first chart? Why can I not do the same make analysis and trade differently?
How many times I have to explain it?
Noooo I am so wrong calling the top for one year and you are soooo smart with clear wrong analysis on both tops but traded something else.
Really tired of "experts" coming back to show how smart they are with the only analysis - Krasi is wrong.
If you really think you have great analysis post it - I see this and this and let your forecasts speak for them selves.
And for xyz - your analysis were proven wrong.
Your trading is based off a simple 10 day moving average. Yawn. Nothing to be excited about.
DeleteThe top was in April? Am I missing something? We just hit an ATH about three or four days ago in June and after this pullback probably a new ATH, probably close to 4500.
DeleteThank you for your analysis. Based on your projection of a more short term correction at this stage, what is your plan for your full short position. Is there a level or a time you would unwind it? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThe plan is mid-July at 18 month low or if it suddenly reverses higher.
DeleteStrong rebound, maybe friday was 5w low
ReplyDeleteToo early to say. A week ago I have notice something - we have finished 20d cycle when we see close below the open from the previous day(up trend)/close above the open from the previous day(down trend).
DeleteI am still watching, but so far this is the most reliable way to find finished 20d cycle.
So for confirmation we should see close above 4204.
Hi Krasi, what do you mean here since we closed above 4204. Is it the end of the short term downtrend or a bounce in the downtrend? Thanks
DeleteThis is only going up now! Neely, Krasi, all the bears have capitulated and the 4300+ brigade have won out. If you can't beat them, join them!
Delete4100 minimum before 4300. Yesterday was a fake out.
DeleteYogibear - this means that 20d cycle has completed and the next one has started.
DeleteThis should be a bounce in a downtrend.
Anonymous - I have removed the bullish option and left only the bearish one - how is this capitulation???? The herd continues to live in its fantasy world waiting for 4300+ for a third month in the middle of a correction.
Krasi, don't you think we have to see one more high?
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily.
DeleteAfter the divergences in indices of the last few weeks , things look more in balance now . NQ reacted at the 14100/200 level identified but has gone sideways since .
ReplyDeleteThe outsize moves in currencies and bonds have prevented equities falling here . Both now appear to be in a 2/B wave , the top/bottom of which should now coincide with the indices high . That will start the 3/C in bonds and currencies and take indices down with them.
Timing wise , it might all line up this week - next week if not.
Indices might want a marginal new high at that point or they might not . No idea , but I think it'll be clearer when we get there.
Some fresh air - someone posting analysis. Thank you!
DeleteNDX looks bad, the pattern is complete and another week is unlikely - https://invst.ly/v7q4e
DeleteI think you're right . Today or tomorrow look good candidates now . Would prefer another spike across the asset classes so ideally tomorrow & that would be the clearer entry Took a small short at the dt today just in case ....
DeleteKrasi, we are in the last movement of wave Y?
ReplyDeleteWe saw the top long ago.
DeleteNDX close over the line?
ReplyDeleteKrasi, the line didn't stop the ndx
ReplyDeleteAt what point can we call this run an impulse? This "corrective wave has gone straight up since March 2020
ReplyDeleteNever it is corrective structure and you can not change the past.
DeleteThat doesn't make any sense. If straight up isn't an impulse, then what is?
ReplyDeleteThe fed control the market with a lot of money
ReplyDeleteHave a question. From March 2020 lows, how many of us are bearish and didn't invest or make money at all with bearish mindset?
ReplyDeleteMy point is , is it better to have lifetime bearish mindset or being in the game , invested like others and watch the fun!!!
I myself invested long term portfolio into commodities , it's too early , but I'm looking it back after 10 years.
I have an answer. As someone who has had a barish mindset for many years not only did I miss out on upside, I also made some bearish bets (MY responsibility) and got my face ripped off. It's better to ride the market up with all the "sheeple" and have some stops in place so you don't get killed if/when markets turn down. I could have made a fortune this last 15 months, but I fell into Krasi's mindset (still ultimately my fault). If you wait, and wait, and wait, you ultimately miss out with hopes of scoring the big one in a drop.
DeleteIf you have a bearish mindset to start (me for many years), you will ultimately lose money because the market goes up many more days than it goes down...except in those occasional nasty bear markets. And in the last 10 years with the FED artificially supporting the market, it's even more one-sided. One day, when the FED is done with their BS or they blow themselves up, maybe we'll have a more normalized market.
DeleteThe way I see is Krasi's analysis is a pointer to keep in mind and when he says RISK in markets, it's our responsibility to to hedge our portfolios (or) just leave to to time horizon.
DeleteWe don't need to turn bearish or bullish, rather add hedges in risky times. This gives better peace of mind while the show still goes on
Krasi was very positive most of the movement, I remember he said every week one more high until the last movement
ReplyDeleteJust to give an example, I've been in markets , trading for a long time , doing EW, analysis etc etc.
ReplyDeleteMy friend who doesn't know what a stock is now has a portfolio of min 1/2 a million.
He started trading Jan 2021 when everyone talking about market peaking.
He trades based on support/resistance , channeling, earnings etc , While I'm talking rest of the theory.
In essence, it boils down to what we need to follow. Is it the money or is it something else.
I think the is going up till mid July because of the printing, there is a lot of money in the market
ReplyDeleteIMO, the bubble is in Bonds. Stock market won't be topping anytime soon. All that's happening is endless sector rotation.
ReplyDeletethat is a rolling joke, USA fed intervenes by the intermediary of Bank of Japan which buys constantly every night ETF on products like SPY every time the markets is cratering because they do not have the luxury to let it go down because it i will create a Panic so gap up, gap up with no volume.
ReplyDeleteNobody is selling but they will sell all at once when it will really hurt, so watch for some big gaps down with a lot of volume when marginated hubris to the hilt, will be called by their masters.
DeleteFor whatever reason the market continues to grind higher. That's fine. But, as I have been stating the last 3 weeks, be on the look out when this market confirms its starting to go down. The market still has a destiny with 2300. Markets hate leaving large open gaps. Just a fact. There is one at 3975. The next one is 3310. Then 2863 and finally 2290.
ReplyDeletewhen? nobody knows, EWT does not seem to work because it was constructed on premises that did not exist at the time it was originated, which is massive Central Banks interventions. So never wave 2 or 4 is meeting is targets which do not exist anymore. Always mini wave 2 and 4 for all practical purposes, and if it works for a day or two , it is Massive, Massive Central Banks intervention which brings law an order to the fore
DeleteWell, the drop on May 12 was a confirmation that the market had changed its characteristics. It should have rolled over from there, but instead has risen to new highs. However, it has been with divergences, so I think if it heads back down and breaks 4055.... we are on our way.
DeleteI hope so
DeleteEWT works always in climbing, not in descending
ReplyDeleteIt is now always seems like and ending diagonal because the markets is programmed to climb along a well defined line, because they have, to keep the system going , ABC, without that everything will get berserk.
Deletei can make a case for nq/ndx that it has been backtesting a breakdown line for a month. that would imply at some point it lets go. or never...https://www.tradingview.com/x/xt2qtID2/
ReplyDeleteYes... Your chart is what I was talking about earlier.... The market changed its characteristics on May 12. We have been back testing since then in a rising wedge. When that breaks, we should begin the move down.
DeleteKrasi, what are you basing your 10% correction on? If we are in fact in the parabolic final phase, could that negate cycles? The end phases of bull markets don't usually have a 10% blip before going nuts.
ReplyDeleteLike Krasi said the bull market ended in 2018.
ReplyDeleteKrasi might be right. If you see it's probably the Delta variant of the COVID is the event why markets might sneeze. It's more of alignment of tops with the events.
ReplyDeleteThere is no debate the market needs an event for it to go down, but it won't be Covid...that is old news no matter what kind of new variants they invent. It will be something unexpected. Until then.... grind away.
Deletemarkets desensitize to virus news now. It seems nothing matters as long as liquidity is in place. So I guess the event could be the end of liquidity or an event that signals this end is going to happen.
Delete