Trading cycle - buy signal. Entered the time window for 10w high. The next MA10 cross should mean we have 10w high and turn lower into the next 10w low.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the last low we have double zig-zag a-wave and simple zig-zag c-wave with c=0,618xa.
Lately double zig-zags are market's favorite pattern so it could decide to go for it and c=a in the next few trading days.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow).
MACD and and RSI with double divergences, waiting to see what happens next week.
With all this zig-zags is very difficult to make pattern analysis, one way to extend it another 2 weeks and still making some sense is this ED for c/C/Y.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is close to completion. After the high expect 8-10 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
All indicators with divergences an RSI just hit the the cross point of the trend lines after a break and test of the rising trend line.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same only VIX plunged this week... hmm I do not know how to interpret this - VIX against all the others. The other indicators behave as it should be, even another volatility indicator I follow. Some one posted it somewhere I do not remember, but it is useful to find extremes and divergences - it behaves as it should at a top.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with multiple divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - weak still sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - neutral.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, multiple divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75, multiple divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - made lower low, this is not the usual behavior at tops?!?!
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, multiple divergence so far.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 11 days this should be 20d high and if my count is right 18 month high. If not expect one more 20d cycle high to complete the 18m cycle high.
Week 9 for the 20 week cycle. The 40w cycle high is now 31 weeks long and it is mature. The average length for the 40 week cycle lows is 32-36 weeks and the highs are running shorter so we are in the timing band for a high.
A new wave up!!!
ReplyDelete:)
If markets see growth, forget about any collapse . If instead , inflation is seen , yes huge correction is the case . With new Infra plan , what do you think markets see ? Obviously growth right . It’s as simple as this.
DeleteWhich is this new wave up? I do not see it....
Deletekkandru - this funnymental analysis is nothing more than blah-blah excuses and mean nothing. Prepare for two months correction.
Ending diagonal with a high in the second half of April is probable. It seems DXY wants to correct and it would be better if high on indices came with higher low on VIX.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your great work Krasi. With a final rally towards the end of mature 5 month bullish phase reminds me of late August 2020. But extremes can become more so. The final surge could go to 4200 on SPX. Agree the DJIA needs to hit more highs.
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi, although I am probably the biggest bear on the planet, I don't know what to make up of your always increasing goalposts both in terms of price and time. Have we thought of any alternative here if this continues to melt up? I know you dont like Avi (and neither me due to his false outrageous claims on micro levels), but he is calling this as a heart of wave 3 once we cross above 4050 and as much as I hate it, I think I might have to agree with him on that especially if we close above 4050 for a couple days. I would just want to know your alternative opinion if this market does not reverse sharply in another week and how much room can we give both in terms of price and time. This is no way to look down upon your analysis so apologies if it seemed that way. Its just this b**s*** market.
ReplyDeleteAvi strikes again 😂. He is an evil genius marketer. I was told he has 7,000 subscribers. Times at least $100 per subscriber, he prints money. Doesn’t matter what his forecast is. BTW, he was calling for 4000 before the COVID crash.
DeleteCalm down and watch the video below if you do not trust me that high is coming.
DeleteI do not know how I always increase my time and price targets....
- time target was this week or next week.
- price target - the only time I have discussed such, was a few weeks ago and it was Fibo targets around 4100 in the comment section. Usually I watch time and do not give price targets.
My analysis was and is for final zig-zag - this week it reached the minimal target c=0,618xa. If it will reach next week c=a or even go crazy c=1,618xa I can not say. You can not say which extension the zig-zag will have and if the 20d cycle will last 11 or 13 days - you have to live with that.
Avi's third wave will play out like the last time he predicted third wave. You have to be blind not to see clear corrective zig-zag. The guy has no clue about EW, but build a nice business around it to collect subscriptions.
Interesting video with peak analysis from David Hickson - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1o5HsXMp-0
ReplyDeleteWhen you do not trust me listen to another cycle guy.
His software is showing that price and time entered the window for a high with mid-April the center of this time window. My perfect time target is next week when both legs up will be equal in time - see the last chart explained all this last week.
The difference is I follow strictly the sequence high-low. David is talking about this 18m and 40w high-low, but he stops there and has 20w and 10w high followed by 20w low which is wrong - explained it last week.
DeleteThe implications:
- David's analysis means long lasting correction, which means shallow and choppy correction.
- my analysis means short correction, which means steep correction.
After what we saw in the last one year, what do you think is more likely? How do you think the market will purge greed - with slow choppy calm correction.... a walk in the park? - I do not think so.
The move from March 2020 could be the start of an ending diagonal. We completed 3 waves so far. The last wave looks to forming an ending diagonal and we should be topping at the end of April imo. It could also be a wave 1 with an AB of an expanded flat, C is to follow.
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to say what last years Feb-March crash was. It could be an A wave and right now we are in the B wave, or it could be a C wave and the A wave happened in Oct-Dec 2018.
Powering through 4000. Sure this is not an impulse?
ReplyDeletehello all. what is neely's latest opinion? this spx is unstoppable. literally whatever you buy whatever you make money.
ReplyDeletemore like a=c ( where a was 4/3-17/3) at 4115. Dow 34000 and NQ double top .
ReplyDeleteShould've bought the dip ...lol
up, up, up forever :)
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, how do you interpret these gaps that are showing up as floating daily candles on NQ, SPX, etc?
ReplyDelete4100, canal top
ReplyDeleteVix up, doesn't give one shit about 4k and most bears leaving the field
ReplyDeleteand then there's oil
Deletekrasi....well done, you were right when you told me I was too early last time I shorted ( mid Feb.... though still got a decent c 6% drop). This time I think we are in exact agreement.....I have multi time periods showing sell and also just about at an important price target for SPX ( 4090/ 4100) . Will step in just like last time....a third later today, a third on two successive down days and a third when MACD breaks below its signal line. thanks Krasi....
ReplyDeleteHave you watched Ask Slim? He is predicting a drop to around 3700 then one final push into summer before crash in fall.
ReplyDeleteIf it drops to 3700, it may never come back to ATHs. That is the line in the sand for SPX.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deleteactually his lower price targets in the april 2 video are 3895 and 3860. then higher. his higher price targets will be exceeded this week in only 2-3 days, so he was too bearish. the cycle will swamp as he says.
Deleteslim was bullish on silver at 30! dude is not one to follow
Delete4175 to 4300. hicksons 18 month cycle high in 2017 was a dud, hardly a pull back at all. this one will be similar. spring optimism esp around the virus is too strong.
ReplyDeleteoptimism can be removed quickly when you have variants now ignoring vaccines. The press is barely talking about it to protect our hero Biden.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-04-06/double-mutant-coronavirus-variant-found-california
Variant is actually good catalyst to tank the markets rather than eventually pining the blames on hedge funds and failed banking system. I wonder, if variant is missed for the blame then what other reason they will find??
Deleteprobly what this needs is a bit of a black swan. taiwan, ukraine, other.
DeleteBad Krasi analisys for black swan!!!
ReplyDelete:)
When would be a good time to invest in uvxy?
ReplyDeleteI think you really meant "when would be a good time to speculate in UVXY?"
Delete4.5
ReplyDeleteuvxy will reverse split by mid may
ReplyDeleteThe only zigzags I'm seeing are zigzags higher. When is your primary LT view invalidated, you've been holding onto it as it has still run 1000 points higher!
ReplyDeleteanother .88% higher nq so far. sentiment not indicating any kind of top
ReplyDeleteSentiment IS indicating a top.
Deletehttps://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
it can run to 66-70% tho
Deletea=c at 4115 still likely , but looking like we need another b wave first to perhaps 4010 .
ReplyDeleteThe high postponed for another week or so I'd say .
Krasi staying quiet like a fox waiting to pounce when this thing tanks
ReplyDeleteOr quiet because his analysis is about to get destroyed.
ReplyDelete"as expected"
ReplyDeleteAvi 2.0
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean?
DeleteCredit Suisse is tightening hedge fund lending rules and moving to dynamic margin requirement. Pretty sure other hedge funds and banks would have started cleaning up their books (IF they learnt any lessons).
ReplyDeleteFrom my reading, last 6 months have been major distribution. Big techs are trading in range which easily account for 10T market cap.
Two legs higher with the same size C=A and length 10 days - https://invst.ly/uevsr
ReplyDeleteOn much bigger scale from the March low we have two legs with the same length 23 weeks and C=0,618xA
This is the top so be careful.
New ATH
Deletehey, regardless of how we, i have to include myself as i am guilty, all criticize, i sincerely appreciate all your analysis. just keep doing it!
DeleteKrasi with the pounce! Nq just lost 100 points over night
ReplyDeleteYeah good call. LOL
Deletenot quite a=c yet , so whilst shorts are good odds , there is scope for a b wave down then fresh highs to 4115 +/- next week . In particular , NQ doesn't look done to the upside .
ReplyDeleteFeel free to wait until next week to short this. Sunday into Monday may be down 100 points.
DeleteThanks - I didn't know I had to ask for permission. Love the use of the word "may"
ReplyDelete"Top" "As expected"
ReplyDeleteYep. He has been saying this move off the low is near completion for 6 months. It will now get moved two weeks, then two weeks, then two weeks. Just like in 2019. At some point it will drop and you'll get the I told you so. Same ole song and dance.
ReplyDeleteGuys, if you don't agree with the analysis, why do you keep coming back to the blog? Take it or leave it
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