Next few months should be choppy without a direction, not easy to trade so good luck trading!!!!!!!
Not very clear patterns. I do not see big directional moves in the next 6 months. It seems like trend change from 4y highs/lows to 4y lows/highs and all assets continue to move in sync:
- Stocks - transition from up to down.
- Bonds - higher to complete 18m cycle high then continuing lower
- USD - higher in the next few months.
- Precious metals/miners - not very clear patterns best guess up for the next high part of topping process.
- Crude Oil - correction for several months.
- STOCKS
Intermediate term topping similar to 2000 and 2007 is running.
Long term we are seeing 4 year cycle high this year and then expect decline for 4 year cycle low late 2023/Q12024.
NYSE showing all the 4y highs since 2000.
- BONDS
We saw the expected 18m low and now moving higher into 18m high. I guess the high should be around September, but if you take the closing high not the spike it could stretch until the end of the year.
- FOREX
EUR/USD - I think this is another 4y cycle high and we should see decline in 4y cycle low. I am not sure about the pattern, it looks like triangle to me at the moment.
- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
GOLD - long term last year we saw 9y cycle high and I think precious metals should move lower into 9y low late 2023/Q12024 like the stock indices.
It seems the 18m cycle is moving with average length of 16 months and we have two more of them until gold reaches the important 9y cycle low. The rest of the year should be some kind up move for 18 month high currently at month 11 from the last top.
MINERS - similar like gold probably a low in the summer and higher continuing with the topping pattern. Interesting this 9y cycle is counting better as 3x3y cycles, but with the spike lower 2x4y cycles iss working goo too.
- CRUDE OIL
It is time for 18m high, weekly RSI divergence and trend line break, even if you count impulse it is time for correction. So everything points to a correction for a few months.
Hello Krasi,what do you think about Bitcoin?
ReplyDeleteCorrection higher then continuation lower.
Deletewas today a b wave up you think? I expect C low in august?
ReplyDeleteDifficult to say....
DeleteHi Krasi, now a days bearish divergence doesn't matter :) but do you think SPX hasn't hit 18 month low yet and there is a chance of a 10% correction here?
ReplyDeleteI expect one more leg lower, how big I do not know.
DeleteThe NDX impulse which I have shown last week - https://invst.ly/viqvq
ReplyDeleteReady to be completed next week right on schedule around FOMC
Peter eliades target for dji back in early July was 35700 or thereabouts. By Wednesday I think that will come.
ReplyDelete