Trading trigger - buy signal. Reached the average length for 10w high.
Analysis - sell the highs, the market is near a major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for B-wave we need to see sharp reversal... I doubt it. More likely we are in c/Z.
Intermediate term - It looks more and more like W-x-Y-x-Z structure three zig-zags from the March.2020 low with roughly the same length in time. Testing the broken trend line with RSI divergences daily and weekly.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow. Some perspective for those with the 5500 fantasy... it is just getting started for sure.... all sheeple with the same target - one says baaa and all the others repeat.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - signs of weakening, at least short term top.
McClellan Oscillator - loer high and ready move below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - topping below 70?
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - looks lie topping below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low so far... double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and heading lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX more clear picture 4x20d cycles 8 weeks for 10w high. In the next days we should see turn into 10w low.
Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. At the moment it is very difficult to pinpoint the 18m cycle low...
Week 4 for the 20w cycle? Was late September 20w low?? or even 18m low??? like this (DJ):
test. having problems posting here..
ReplyDeleteComments are posted after approval, but it should be working.
DeleteThanks. Based on your cycles are we to expect after an immediate small correction the High to come around Thanksgiving (20 week high) and the first important low in mid-December? If so the mid-December would be a 10 week or 20 week low? Thank you once again for your work.
DeleteI think this move up is taking too long to be just 10w low so it is 20w low as shown on the lat chart so first half of December should be 10w low.
DeleteYour short term chart did not show up on your blog post. thanks.
ReplyDeleteProbably something with your browser... I watch this https://invst.ly/wgr64
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteHow long you think this will drag on to the upside?
I would say 2-3 weeks - https://invst.ly/wgr64
DeleteHi Krasi, Any thoughts on hang seng and japan as patterns different to US
ReplyDeleteNo idea there is no clear patterns.
Deletemay be 3 cycles of 20w since november 2020, then 18m low in december
ReplyDeleteI think we have already three 20w cycles since November 2020 for 18m low. Until December will take too long.
DeleteMonthly charts look like a blow off top is about to happen. Could we see an euphoric extension to 5k?
ReplyDeleteVery informative post! There is a lot of information here that can help any business get started with a successful social networking campaign. заявление на получение визы в Канаду
Deletelook at the transportation index ...
DeleteI looks like running triangle wave 4 and now 5/c/Z - https://invst.ly/wg-br
ReplyDeleteKrasi, what do you think about the 50 moving average cross the 200 moving average, don't you think it's telling us to long the S&P?
ReplyDeleteThere is no such cross, I do not know what you are talking about.
DeleteIn weekly chart
ReplyDeleteThere is no such cross on the weekly chart either, I do not know what you are talking about.
DeleteGann squaring of time and price at 4624 today , which is 68^2 . Gann reckoned this was the most powerful type of trend change he discovered ........within a margin of error so far
ReplyDeleteKrasi, is there any way that this coming December can be a 40 week low with the last 40 week low being last May 2021 and the one before being last October 2020 ? Thank you
ReplyDeleteNo, there is a very easy way to count this coming December as 40 week high, but not a low.
DeleteMay 2021 is not such a significant low, just the middle of a correction.
Krasi firstly a lot of respect for your regular updates. I have followed this blog since 2018.
ReplyDeleteBut this time you have been calling for a top since ~ 3700 Spx late last year if I recall. So I do see merit when people troll here cos roughly 1000pt gains missed if not playing or even worse if short calling for top.
Think you were even scaling into shorts at some point around 4k, not sure how that ended cos didnt hear much about it.
You will probably not approve this post. But keen to hear a genuine reflection. Noone is perfect, as you also point out this is a free service.
Just keen to understand what isn't working for this portion of your analysis that's all.
but this is the top right krasi? you fool. 4200 was the top, right... it will go to 5500.
ReplyDeleteUp against your daily broken trendline , with no more wriggle room . More relevant , we've now broken out on the weekly chart since the 2009 low .Guess we see whether we get a pullback or consolidation whilst the trendlines grind higher . Or maybe the bulls go with the break -lol.
ReplyDelete400 pt rally in a month. Fastest bull market in history since the 2020 low .
Cheering the top.
DeleteKrasi, did you buy UVXY
ReplyDelete