Weekly preview

After 10w low in September now watching for 10w high in October. Last week I have shown triangle because it makes most sense from cycle point of view - completed pattern for a cycle low followed by another pattern completing for the corresponding cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. 10w high is expected and this is what the MA10 trigger is showing.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - triangle B-wave seems the most likely scenario so I continue to watch it as my primary pattern.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
It seems price is consolidating below the broken trend line and MA50.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bounced higher this week. No change in the big picture the indices should be in the middle of intermediate term correction.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - bounce higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up rom the 25 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - nothing interesting.....
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range around zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - no surprises we have the 20d low on day 9 or 10 depends on if you look at futures or cash index. Now close/at 20d high... next week we should see decline into 20d/5w low.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. Intermediate term two options and I think the bullish one is more likely:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in November with one extra 20w cycle - time adjusting for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means decline into 20w low only.