Oct 9, 2021

Weekly preview

After 10w low in September now watching for 10w high in October. Last week I have shown triangle because it makes most sense from cycle point of view - completed pattern for a cycle low followed by another pattern completing for the corresponding cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. 10w high is expected and this is what the MA10 trigger is showing.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - triangle B-wave seems the most likely scenario so I continue to watch it as my primary pattern.


Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
It seems price is consolidating below the broken trend line and MA50.


Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bounced higher this week. No change in the big picture the indices should be in the middle of intermediate term correction.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - bounce higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up rom the 25 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - nothing interesting.....
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range around zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - no surprises we have the 20d low on day 9 or 10 depends on if you look at futures or cash index. Now close/at 20d high... next week we should see decline into 20d/5w low.


Week 11 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. Intermediate term two options and I think the bullish one is more likely:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in November with one extra 20w cycle - time adjusting for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means decline into 20w low only.

8 comments:

  1. Thanks, we have strong support on ES around 4250, I think it will take a couple of tries to break it so that triangle makes sense. It would also get the market to be calm before the larger plunge. Thanks Krasi

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    Replies
    1. It seems to be the replica of Q4-18 the way it is progressing so far. Would be good to play both sides for a couple more weeks before the plunge. Just wondering if it could be so obvious.

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  2. Hi Krasi, lot of zig zag movement. Can you post your short term forecast? Do you think this is 5w low and ready for reversal?

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    Replies
    1. Just b-wave - https://invst.ly/warjj
      Look at RSI zig-zag lower 15 bars and sideways consolidation 10 bars so far.

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  3. Krasi, are indices ready to go parabolic for a final blow off top?

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    Replies
    1. Still think it is B-wave.
      The final move up could look like blow-off, but the topping is running for month so it is not a blow-off top.

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