Trading trigger - sell signall, expect something lower for a few weeks.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - nothing new, no clear pattern... I think the indices are in the middle of something. Clear zig-zag higher so ED,triangle or b-wave of a flat.
Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y. Obvious MACD/RSI divergence...
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing some strength, like something started early December.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting lower, close to zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signall.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signall.
Bullish Percentage - spike above 70 and turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - spike above 75 and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit ovebought and retracing lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - This should be 10w high. The second 5w high seems to consist of three shorter 20d cycles. Next we should see decline into 10w low.
Week 14 for the 20w cycle? Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low now 50/50 eiter late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out.
I don't think major decline started yet. I think one more rally before top in late January.
ReplyDeleteThe issue is almost everyone is looking at the one more high in late January
DeleteI think January will be lower and February higher then bigger decline.
DeleteKrasi, you mean higher high in Feb or lower high? Thanks
DeleteKrasi, when do we get long term update?
ReplyDeleteIn summer... I do not have the time and energy at the moment.
DeleteI have to think about and plan something else which will take months.
Krasi, we're at strong ma support on daily and weekly here. Do you see a few days bounce at this point? I'm assuming minor...
ReplyDelete5w low today?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible, but it is too long.... I prefer to count it as shown on the chart above.
DeleteAnother speculation NYSE - https://invst.ly/x3pgu
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, if you had to guess the precise week for 20w low, what would it be? Its probably ~14 weeks since the previous 20w low (end of Sept), so would next 20w low be close to end of Jan / early Feb? David Hickson predicts week of Feb 7th for 20w low.
ReplyDeleteWeek 6 for the current 10w cycle I would say another 2-3 weeks which means the last week of January or the first of February.
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