Weekly preview

Higher for c-wave as expected. Next we should see 10w high at the latest around FOMC and decline for three weeks.

If you count from the high in November this is the 40w high. If you count from January this is the first leg of a corrective move higher, next is a few weeks lower for 10w low b-wave and final leg up for the 40w high.
The intuition tells me it is the second - more time for market breadth to reset, the weekly indicators like histogram to move into positive teritory etc. We will know for sure when we see the speed of the decline when it starts...
P.S. it sounds bullish, but this will mean long move B-wave and the whole decline until mid-June is A-wave and simillar in size and length decline C-wave should follow... bigger than I have expected so far.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low in June and in the middle of corrective move up.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c is completed or close to completition. In thext weeks we will see if it is part of a bigger pattern(green) or not(red).

Intermediate term - One zig-zag is completed so it could be a top or bigger corrective pattern is possible.
In the case of bigger corrective pattern the top should have been in January and we have double zig-zag lower and now B-wave for the 40w high.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
The histogram should move into positive teritory, which means higher for weeks.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher, no signs of a high so far.
McClellan Oscillator - reached overbought level and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - breaking lower from the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 10w high, next should be decline until mid-August for 10w low.

Week 29/35 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November this should be the high. If you count from January it will take more time - the end of August or later.