Trading trigger - buy sugnal, wait for the next low in a week if you want to buy.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Possible intermediate term low in June.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two cases shown... the green one still looks more likely.
Intermediate term - probably in b-wave of 4/x/B what ever it is.
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive... but nothing special.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - still in the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - as expected higher for 20d high, next week we should see decline into 5w low.
Week 27/33 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November around the end of July we should see the high. If you count from January the high should be around the end of August.
How the heck does one trade this market. So slow and painful when one wants to take a position and then suddenly moves like a maniac. I wonder what are the chances that it doesn't make a double bottom or slight lower low and again creep upwards towards ATH in the last quarter.
ReplyDeleteThe chance is zero - we have 6-7 months lower which is 100% guarantee the 40w high is bearish which means lower for the next 40w low and the earliest date for it is October/November if you count from July last year.
DeleteThanks Krasi, really fascinated by such a confidence. Never seen you this confident before. lol. Hope it really works out that way. Neely just sent out a public chart to non-members and its depicting the similar scenario as I described so basically he has the same view that we are going higher after sideways for a couple months. Mid-term election patter does suggest that but then everyone is looking at it. tricky one.
DeleteKrasi, if we get a dump quickly to the 200 week moving average, and a high Vix, above 45, would that bring a rally back above the 4500 area? Or even challenge all time highs?
ReplyDeleteNo, it is explained above.
DeleteIt looks like they are going higher, so we see the bottom?
ReplyDeleteYou jinxed it
DeleteKasi, don't you think we see wave A up, wave B down, wave a of C up, b of C down and we are going to see wave c of C up
ReplyDeleteyup that is what it seems like. kraci is also looking for the same I guess. we should be bottoming in next couple of days and hopefully hold 3750 if we are going higher to 4100-4200 directly. below 3700 and things become really messy.
Deleteand we both made a typo in his name. You said Kasi and I said Kraci. Lets see if we respond now. Lol.
DeleteLets see if he responds* now I meant. so many typos and one cannot edit the comments here.
Deletecycle lows are usually at pattern lows so I would say either B or c/B is running.
DeleteKrasi, don't you think we see wave A up, wave B down and we are going to see wave C up to 4000?
ReplyDeletenot if they can't hold above 3800.
DeleteWho knows maybe something more complicated.
DeleteIt seems every Tom Dick and Harry on twitter is bullish now. Reversal yet?
ReplyDeleteI think there is more time until the next high. The previous counter trend move in March was strong up so based on the rule of alternation this one should be sideways pattern taking more time.
Deletejust want to say jim cramer said the bottom was today :)
ReplyDeletelooks like bottom and now C with the shorts bonfire
ReplyDeleteKrasi, we are ready for 4000?
ReplyDeleteMaybe or maybe something more complex is running.
DeleteComplète bullshit that it goes higher, Italy without Mario Draghi is dead so watch out because it is the 4th economy in Europe and it is very important to maintain all that crap up
ReplyDeleteSo much bullshit, no one cares about another Davos servant like Dragi they all are exchangeable.
DeleteI would not bet on that, whatever it takes is gone , no government in Italy right now, so what about the extremely indebted banks there , how they will survive
ReplyDeleteAnyone looking at usdjpy? Any ideas on where this is from an EW pov?
ReplyDeletedxy is in a large C wave I think, up to 120 and probably more. The Euro parity will seem excessive in a few years when we get down to .70 Euro to Dollar. Krasi may or may not agree.
Deletetriple correction? Z lower next?
ReplyDelete