Weekly preview

Nothing new to add - the indices are at 10w high which could be 40w high. Alternate this is a-wave of a bigger corrective pattern.

Last week I was sure it will take more time to see the high because of indicators/breadth etc. Now I do not think so this kind of strength is typical for the cycle high on top of this see the comments - cycles do not work, maybe it is 2020 again.... it smells too much like the expected high anyway we will see what happens in the next few weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, close to the next high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Possible intermediate term high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like double zig-zag with c-wave extending 1.618 the length of the a-wave. If it is part of bigger corrective pattern or not? We will know in a few weeks.

Intermediate term - One corrective pattern should be completing at the trend line so this could be the top or it is part of a bigger corrective pattern.
In the case of bigger corrective pattern the top should have been in January and we have double zig-zag lower and in the middle of a B-wave for the 40w high.... after this week a doubt this scenario.

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - reached overbought levels.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - at the overbought level 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - heading lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 10w high, next should be decline until mid-August for 10w low.

Week 30/36 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November). If you count from November this should be the high. If you count from January it will take more time - the end of August or later.