Trading trigger - buy signal, day 47 due for a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high next a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like double zig-zag with c-wave extending 1.618 the length of the a-wave. Should we see final push higher to the targets(green area) - I do not know. Because of cycles I do not think this is part of bigger pattern.
Intermediate term - corrective pattern is completing at the trend line and 40w high. It is time for the next leg lower. Less likely B-wave(yellow).
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower from sligthly overbought levels. In a bull market you do not need divergence for a low just oversold levels touched. In a bear market it is the opposite - you do not need divergence for a high just overbought levels touched.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached, divergence and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, now we have reset after very low levels and ready for the next leg lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - sligthly overbought level and turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sligthly overbought level and turning lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - drifting lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - sligthly overbought level and turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high and turning lower into 20d low. Intermediate term we should se 10w high and 10w low... and some kind of topping.
Week 18 for the 20w cycle high - average lenght 16-18 weeks it is time for 20w high.
Week 31/37 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November) - average lenght 32-36 weeks it is time for 40w high.
Thanks a lot, can you tell us for how long this bear market going to be here?
ReplyDeleteHere is what I think, at least 50% maybe more 1.5 to 2 years in length. Here is a great reference:
Deletehttps://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652
Krasi can you elaborate on this? Thank you!
how long this bear market going to be here? Until we see the 4 year cycle low - this year and next year.
DeleteFrom the article above - FAST FACTS .....bear markets occur, on average, around 3.5 years apart from each other.
I am shocked there is a cycle lasting 3.5-4 years :)
How big and long a bear market will be depends on pattern and cycles - not all are the same because they appear at different stage of the pattern. So comparing all of them is not very helpful.
The common for all of them is that they occur every 3.5-4 years and last until the next 4 year cycle low - this one will last 2 years.
Thanks you
ReplyDelete"Return to normal" phase in full swing
ReplyDeleteKrasi, don't you think the macd is positive in the weakly chart says we see the bottom?
ReplyDeleteNO
DeleteA prime example of why some adult tigers eat their young ... LOL
DeleteThat's
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, what is your prediction for US10Y and DXY until end of the year? Thank you
ReplyDeleteEverything moves in tandem - the indices will move lower until November so US10Y lower and DXY higher until November after that in the opposite direction.
DeleteThe Fibo target has been reached with extended wave c. Now waiting for wave 5/c to be completed - https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_00e7a6609884387a6b136ecb5200b4d3.png
ReplyDeleteThe cycle is extended too - the first 20w high has only 3x5w cycle and I think the current one has 5x5w cycles.
ReplyDeleteAt the end we have 8x5w cycles and the 40w cycle is currently 32 weeks long - short said right on schedule.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_aed3765984495537b6f9c343cb776752.png
So you expect 3000 on November?
ReplyDeleteOr 3900?
ReplyDeleteThanks 🙏
ReplyDeleteIt will be horrible to the downside like no other bear market, every economy is toast , there were never such a precedent since September,3 1929 and July,2 1932 and it will be faster
ReplyDeleteMarch 2020 is just an appetizer
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DeleteAnd it is coming after reaching 4300 tomorrow or in the next few days
ReplyDeleteLet say August 15 , like in a pivotal date
DeleteMany are reporting highest short positions. Doesn't look like market is headed down anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteI do not see any bearishness in this market. Trend up as soon as any pullback happens. When will it drop? No one seems to know exactly.
DeleteI followed Krasi and thought the rise after March drop was going to repeat as it started climbing. Well we were both very wrong. It kept rising. This feels just like that. We keep guessing next week will drop then it goes higher. Higher. And we all said it would drop huge. Now two years later and it dropped and we are looking for another leg down and it keeps going higher just like before.
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