Trading trigger - sell signal, MA10 and the trend line tested and reversal confirmed.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - next a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we saw a/1 and b/2 now c/3 should be running. The surprise scenario is the flush lower on Friday was wave 5 and impulse has been completed... it does not feel right we will see next week.
Intermediate term - The pattern two options wave 4 or B. If you count wave 4 than we have expanding leading diagonal - I have never seen LD playing out not to mention expanding so I would say this is wave B and another zig-zag for wave C will follow.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower and in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - sligthly oversold level reset and now heading lower again.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and now below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and now below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d low then 20d high and turn lower again into the next 20d low.
The first option - the same like what we just saw with the highs - extended 10w cycle.
The second option - simple just following the rules counting 4x20d cycles for one 10w low behind us already, the second one making lower low or the 20w cycle turned lower.
Week 10 for the 20w cycle. The most simple scenario is the 20w cycle is turning lower and RSI is confirming it - another red week is needed for confirmation.
Nice, thanks a lot
ReplyDeleteDefinitely feeling more like a C wave than a 5. Thanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteLooks like everyone so convinced we are going lower so flush has worked. Now futures will climb and 400 point rise coming up to squeeze the short sellers again.
ReplyDeleteIt was the overwhelming short sellers, which actually caused the 1987 flash crash...don't be so sure too much bearishness will cause a rally...and after Powell's speech...if the big players go along even a short while this could as Krasi says "get" real ugly...thanks Krasi, your work is appreciated, watching and learning...
ReplyDeleteThere is not enough bearishness in the market yet.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like ugly impulse, but it is more likely another double zig-zag. The perfect target is 100 points lower to touch two support levels and two Fibo measurements... there is another Fibo level 40 points lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_0936fda2763a5e57f5b142268b5c02ff.png
qqq got right to A=C today, so a bounce up may be tomorrow with end of the month inflows.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like zig-zag now... with the c-wave slightly longer than the a-wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c7f6d8044b37778f597e430b1c8733d8.png
Now 62% retraced
Deleteis it fully confirmed that june was 40 weeks low or is there any other possibility?
ReplyDeleteWith high probability - the counter trend move started from the June low. This occurs at important cycle lows.
DeleteRUT moves like a clock - look at this highs and lows
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_144a2775b20e13c4d32a41d4bbe0ab22.png
If it continues the next 20w low is the end of October early November and the next 20w high Christmas/New Year's Eve
If we bounce here. How many weeks - about 3?
ReplyDeleteSomething like 5 weeks, but it is complicated - see the new post. We could see lower low in the middle of this 5 weeks.
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