Trading trigger - buy signal, day 52 due for a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high next a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the fibo targets have been reached, now waiting to see how the move lower will look like. I think decline and test of the trend line one more time before it realy dives.
Intermediate term - I see two options wave 4 or B, testing the trend line and MA200. In the case of wave 4 expect a low around November(white). In the case of wave B bigger move lower and a low January/February(yellow).
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive, as I wrote no need for divergence this is a bear market.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached and divergence now.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, now we have reset after very low levels and ready for the next leg lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, the same level like January and March.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - continuing lower, not reacting to the last 10 days rally.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high, with high probability close to the top of 40w cycle high.
Week 19 for the 20w cycle high and week 32 for the 40w cycle high - in the time window for a top.
The first 20w cycle high has only 3x5w cycles and I think the current one has 5x5w cycles - time likes to adjust if we have too short or long cycle. At the end we have 8x5w cycles and the 40w cycle is currently 32 weeks long or right on schedule(see the chart above).
Very courageous Krasi, thank you very much
ReplyDeleteJust following the cycles nothing more.
DeleteThanks Krasi and happy holidays.
ReplyDeletehickson new video is quite bullish now he expects only a small pullback into late September. Not sure what to make of it - I like the trendline retest you are showing for a solid short soon.
ReplyDeleteHe was very bearish in his last video. And you should check out his videos after the covid crash.
DeleteI don't get the flip flopping, the low was the same in both videos but now he's calling it a different kind of low because we went higher than expected? When has this market not gone higher than expected?
DeleteBrilliant work Krasi.
ReplyDeleteWe can see 3000-3200 for end year?
ReplyDeleteSometimes in November
DeleteLooks right on schedule for at least 5w high - https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2785e2baa2034cc0cc2a1a26b20b3898.png
ReplyDeleteKrasi, look at the vix, 50 average going to cross 200, if it will happen it's dead Cross
ReplyDeleteMoving average
ReplyDeleteIsnt that bullish for stocks?
ReplyDeleteI saw an add here in miami that speaks volume...to rent for 1 month a very nice villa on the water u need 175k!!! Tell me that this is not the top...
ReplyDeleteKrasi, do you have any perspective on the VIX - mainly, it has been dead in the water for what seems forever? If and when the markets take a large leg back down and test/penetrate below past major lows, shouldn't that put the "fear of God" into the markets and awaken the VIX? Any thoughts would be much appreciated, and thank you much for all your efforts on this blog and its content!
ReplyDeleteI am not volatility expert... what I see no one is scared obvious from the comments last week and that is what VIX is showing.
DeleteThis is because we have just the first leg lower and the majority do not believe it. Next is the C-wave which will wake up the sheeple and we will see fear and VIX with a spike higher.
Overall VIX is in a long term trend higher which will last for years... we will see a few spikes.
Thank you Krasi, especially going outside your expertise to provide a "take" on the VIX.
DeleteIs this 10w low?
ReplyDeleteAgree, It looks like we may have a 10 week low today or Monday. The next rally out of this low should be the TOP.
ReplyDeleteI was talking about the ES not BTC regarding the 10 week low for today or Monday.
ReplyDeleteJP
I have the feeling the count should start from July or 2-3 weeks until the next 10w low....
DeleteThanks. Next week will definitely decide which way we go. Very important week. Thank you for all your work.
DeleteJP
Would this not look better if we make a slightly higher high after current drop?
ReplyDeleteIn a bull market is a must after overbought indicators to wait for one more high and divergence in a bear market not necessarily.
DeleteCurrently is 50/50 - usually the 20d cycle makes a top early in the cycle and the previous move up is retraced in less time. Now the top occurred in the middle at day 5 and we still wait to see were the price will be after 5 days decline.