Trading trigger - neutral, two days closing below MA10 will confirm a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - next a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - too early to make any conclusions, waiting to see how the move lower will look like.
Intermediate term - SPX testing the two trend lines and MA200 - this is some kind of a high. The pattern two options wave 4 or B. If you count wave 4 than we have expanding leading diagonal - I think the probability is higher to see flying unicorn farting rainbows so I would say this is wave B and another zig-zag for wave C will follow.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive, some turning lower. As I wrote no need for divergence this is a bear market.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero after divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming?
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and now lower into 20d low. We have the right number of 20d and 5w cycles for 40w high now waiting for confirmation or not.
Week 20 for the 20w cycle high and week 33 for the 40w cycle high - in the time window for a top(average length 32-36 weeks).
The chart above showing that we have one shorter 20w cycle followed by longer 20w cycle at the end eight 5w cycles for 40w high.
There were questions about the 10w low. Why the unusual positioning(not at the low) for the 10w and 40w lows on the two charts above. If you count 18m low in October.2021 expect the next 18m low in January/February. Eight 10w cycles projected from October.2021 - it is a speculation at the moment, but if we see a low around mid-September it will be a confirmation.
Thank you Krasi , I am completely a bear also. I do not understand the previous commentary . He must be drunk.
ReplyDeleteThe truth ??? What the fuck he is thinking. Does he think it is going up.? It needs a lot of new created money and it is not the 700 billons Biden climate change patch that will do anything. We need a 30 trillions Central Banks injection right now and they are not there yet and it is not the short covering also that will make a difference. The short covering has already taken place. He is the clown.
Appreciate your work. Damage done the last couple years will be punished severely until fed begins a qe5.
DeleteChill out and don't get stupidly arrogant. Drunk?!! Lets see what happens next 1-2 weeks and will adjust the cycles accordingly. There is over a 50% chance we make new highs over 4330 sp. So relax and chill.
DeleteJP
This comment is for the Anonymous obviously not for Krasi. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteJP
There is no point in being upset over an opinion. Short term anything is possible. Up sure. Down sure. It’s a gamble. Big picture looks like it’s likely to head down but you know what? I thought that since June 2020. In fact everyone on this board thought same as me. It’s very difficult game. In the end your account balance is what matters not other peoples opinion.
ReplyDeleteMike Burry has sold everything except geo - a prison stock. Not a good sign if he's right and he often is, although sometimes very early.
ReplyDeleteBurry took a huge loss on his Apple puts and he got out. Go figure.
DeleteI said often, not always. That geo stock just broke a monthly downtrend and has monthly bullish divergence, similar to that old value stock called gamestop.
Deletelooking like one more high is possible, then the trollometer will tell us to sell.
ReplyDeleteI do not see this going lower! It’s gonna make a new high!
ReplyDeleteWith a new phase of the War in Ukraine starting probably today, August 24, Independence Day and while we are in the 6th month anniversary of the beginning of the war , there is a possibility of a massive attack on civilians by Russian forces . All American citizens are enjoined by the US state department to leave Ukraine. They must know something, isn’t it? So the plunge protection team from the treasury department with the help of the US Central Bank will have a lot to do to keep the markets on an even keel. Will they try to overplay? I mean to the upside ! And will they be able?
ReplyDeleteEnergy costs might be affected nevertheless!!! More then usual to the upside and what about Gold , it is a Russian card and they might try to shellac it further.
I think it is 10w low
ReplyDeleteAs i said, we go higher. Too much bears. We will keep churning higher after each pullback.
ReplyDeleteToo many bears was right
DeleteDon’t worry. We will rise next week. This is just a flush before move higher.
Delete