Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - correction higher and one more move lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag lower now flat(alternate triangle) 0,38 retracement then expect another zig-zag probably 0,62 with target 3400.
Or just lower for double zig-zag - it is the same but it takes less time... fits better with cycles,the 20w cycle low is already mature.
Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A. Currently b-wave and final low in November.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICA TORS
Market Breadth Indicators - Oscillators turned higher, but there is no real test of the low with divergence. The trend folowing indicators still with sell signal. I guess the bottoming will take longer.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero, higher lows so far.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - double top.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low this week, next week we should see 20d high to complete 10w high.
Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Expecting surprise longer 20w cycle and 18m low in November. This is the case with 18m low July last year - if you remember it was not clear if it is on schedule in July or the first visible low in October.
What do you think of neely's forecast he is expecting a minor correction and then huge rally toward spx 6000. He does not see us breaking the 2020 lows and considers it a generation low.
ReplyDeleteHe is delusional.
Deletewhat's the alternative count or is he balls in on this one
Deletethe hurst theory allows that the next 40w high exceed the previous one? around 4300
ReplyDeleteThere is no limitation what price should do.
DeleteIs it possible that Friday was 20d high and 10w high?, 24 days from the previous 5w high
ReplyDeleteother option is 5 October for 10w high
DeleteWe can say for sure in hindsight. Obviously the 20w cycle is dominant and the 10w is not well visible just pop higher for a day or two.
DeleteAdded one more hourly chart - at the end variations how the decline from the August high completes.
ReplyDeleteeven Friday could be 5w low
ReplyDeleteSign of bottom: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/y5oj1r/last_week_retail_spent_3x_more_on_put_premium/
ReplyDeleteIt is not retail, it is those who controls the money, and it is very serious, a break down a the financial system
ReplyDeleteI do not think cycles can explain it , that is a global collapse coming from excess monetary easing, to a european war which is going global , to supply chains destructions, to extreme greed, to abject inequalities , to a complete destruction of american values which are evident, to the end of the dollar hegemony.
Deletea stunami, a 93 year cycle wave. All those who knew what 1929 was because they lived it are dead, so those after, even if they know it , they learned about it, did not lived it and it is not ingrained in the profound depths of their reptilian brain and do not react to was is coming whith the same reflexes that could avoid a disaster.
Deletethose kind of disasters are one in a lifetime and now nobody thinks that could happen again
DeleteIs it possible that this 10w high is composed by three 5w cycles?, 12 September, 5 October and next week
ReplyDeleteIt makes more sense if it this week
Deletetoo much strength for a 20d low, I think last week was 5w low
ReplyDeleteThe strength comes from the cycle high which could be even 20w high not from the cycle low
Deleteare you still thinking next week we start declining into november?
ReplyDeleteThis is my preferred scenario
Delete