Trading trigger - buy signal, but this is the high of the cycle.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - one more move lower or bottoming expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - almost completed double zig-zag maybe a day or two for topping. The bigger picture is very difficult to guess at the moment.
Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A, currently I expect final low in November. Alternate we saw the low already.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength all with buy signal now, but another low with divergence can not be excluded.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - strong close to 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit overbought level, the previous four occasoíons this was the high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably 5w low this week. Most likely the 10w cycle is dominant and we will not see clear 5w low.
I expect turn lower next week around FOMC into 10w cycle low.
Week 17+2 for the 20w cycle. Waiting to see where the 20w low is and I think this will be 18m low too.
Drift upward for 1 more month, then quick crash like 2020 but not as low.
ReplyDeleteThe more I think about market psychology, sentiment and wave theory yhe more I think Neely is right and we will just go up in a wave 3. The only thing stopping us right now is a recession, once recession is over Things can be safe for the market.
Also I want to add I think there is a real chance of a crack up boom where inflation gets out of control, the market continues to go up and we have a recession.
ReplyDeleteI will repeat it for n-th time - the world as we know is falling apart. What I was talking about in 2018 is set in motion and there is no turning back. The era of globalization abundance cheap food and energy is over. Those who think this is business as usual a third wave are delusional. Neely will be just another failed expert.
ReplyDeleteMy cycles count
ReplyDeletehttps://prnt.sc/hjO17__Srb01
If gaps on spx cash near 4200 are filled by early next year it would likely imply a higher low coming. Thanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteThere is a important resistance around 4000
ReplyDeletehttps://prnt.sc/SZZMmnc_htAd
Around 2-3 % more for the top
However dji is in resistance
ReplyDeletehttps://prnt.sc/38GPVwgxzTuq
Krasi, last week your take on the TLT etf was "Double zig-zag completing then counter trend move for a few months". Was that for the daily chart timeframe for TLT? I also could not find in my research on EW what the approximate minimum projected percentage move for a countertrend wave for a double zig-zag would be (38.2, 50, 61.8, ???), and would that percentage be based on the entire double zig-zag move, only the last (most recent) ZZ formed, ? Any further info on this would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI mean long term from the top in 2020. Retracement is for the whole move from the top.
DeleteThere ls no rule how big it could be.
Wow, okay, no wonder I couldn't follow/understand the wave count. I appreciate you providing the detail behind your observations.
DeleteCrash/Recession will be short-lived like 2020 imo. THere are so many people saying recession and expecting market crash that it will be very minor like 1990. The masses are usually wrong.
ReplyDeleteSee my first comment. The big crash will not be next year that is true this will be just warming up.
DeleteMaybe this - https://invst.ly/ze0m6
ReplyDeleteTomorrow b of B up into Tuesdays election? Rsi seems very low on mid time frames
ReplyDeletePretty good explanation and road map for the next 10 years - http://blog.wavetrack.com/shock-pop-drop-inflation/
ReplyDeleteI see it exactly the same, the correction I would made is Gold/GDX are rising with corrective wave not impulse - exactly the same B-wave pop - higher is higher it does not matter much.
This confirms my fear that we have double zig-zag B-wave from 2009 - I have to change the primary scenario on the weekly chart. Now it is if we are lucky only 70% decline if not 90%.
Yes, I think lows of 2016 or highs of 2007, 1500-1800
DeleteWhat year for bottom then? People are saying this bear market is in the "7th inning" 🤣
DeleteKrasi, WaveTrack's "S-P-D-I" synopsis predicted at the time that gold would be in a horizontal flat correction for the current timeframe. Yet, prices now seem to be indicating an expanded flat (and therefore deeper drop than the target price of $1,640+/- notated before the next larger wave upward toward a top of $2,472). Is that your take as well? Thanks much for sharing said synopsis - definitely food for thought in many respects.
DeleteI see SP 3200 in 3-4 weeks for 18w low
ReplyDelete