Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - the indices are close to a bottom after that higher for a few months.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to or completed zig-zag, waves 4/5 still could not be ruled out but impulse will be a real surprise... I have not seen such for a long time.
Intermediate term - the indices are nearing intermediate term low... maybe push higher and lower low with divergence - this is how the previous two lows played out and time is interesting both bottoms took one 5w cycle. I still think we will see something higher forget about third waves or crashes. Given the market breadth and cycles it should be B-wave.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to find bottom after very oversold levels.
McClellan Oscillator - higher low, short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - trying to turn higher after very oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to turn higher after very oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - topping after spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - higher low, short term divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower to complete 20d/5w cycle low, now we should see pop higher 10w high and test of the low.
This could be 20w low or one more 5w cycle.
Week 15 for the 20w cycle. If you put aside price and focus on time - it is time for 18m low - March.2020-July.2021-October.2022 ... maybe this is what market breadth is telling us. DAX how pattern and time could look like in this case.
Thanks for your analyses and greeting from Roma.
ReplyDeleteSo based on your long term forecast, a recession is guaranteed in 2023?
ReplyDeleteOf course it is guaranteed... this is the least problem
DeleteWhat in your opinion are other more important problems to worry about?
DeleteWidespread unemployment, poverty, etc?
Fed likely to pivot in case of a recession, shouldn't that stop the decline?
DeleteI don't believe Krasi's blog is very concentrated/concerned about fundamental analysis - instead, technical analysis, charting, Elliot Wave, time cycles, etc.
DeleteI agree, though he has a good understanding of the state of affairs and his opinions are worth listening to. Many time he is right with his analysis.
DeleteAnonymous 1 mass poverty... created on purpose
DeleteAnonymous 2 FED will pivot when it is too late when everything fall apart and will take months to have effect. The same played out in 2008 and 2020.
Since 2018 I am explaining that the world we live in is dead and will fall apart - now it is playing after covid and this war and still there is many which do not get it. Recession FED all this is irrelevant... everything is done on purpose. FED will not pivot to save you they want to destroy you like 1929 the same scenario - and many still think they are making mistake because they are stupid.... so many naive people not getting the big picture.
What is the end goal or the big picture? What are they trying to achieve? More control over the masses?
DeleteNo hard feelings taken. It is very hard to "know"/differentiate one Anonymous from another, how long they have visited/participated on this site, are familiar with the usual "vibe" here, etc. I agree with you that Krasi's macro views, especially related to the Fed's underlying intentions for the future, are quite interesting and compelling.
DeleteTotal dependence on the system - basic income
DeleteSocial credit system like China - digital ID/currency
Controlling your thinking and behavior
Democracy is dead for decades, theater nothing more, illusion of a choice. Trying to create new world worst of communism and capitalism... but first the old system must be destroyed and you should beg for the new one. So no FED will not pivot or what ever other fantasy.
Flush down Monday under weekly 200ma I think would be a buy. Thanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteYes I wish so
DeleteOnly overnight...:)
DeleteThanks a lot krassi
ReplyDeleteHow about Deflation, what do you think - possible? Some smart people are starting to think it's likely.
ReplyDeleteDeflation for what you do not need like stocks,cars,houses and inflation for what you need food and energy.
DeleteDestroying the middle class goes according to the plan
How do you propose we hedge against that?
DeleteIf "energy" could be at a premium in the future, could that also impact the availability/viability of the electric grid, which would/could short circuit (sorry, could resist) the power grid, and therefore negatively impacting or negating the Internet/Web and therefore Crypto, and ....?
DeleteInteresting, I can see that especially as people start collecting ridiculous handbags and bad art as "investments". All that crap should bust
DeleteHow to hedge - independence of the system for food/energy/income as much as possible, no debt.
DeleteAfter 20 years and well paid job in Western Europe I moved back to Eastern Europe and bought a house in the countryside - I will grow my own food. This is my opinion how bad it will be.
I put my money where my mouth is.
Johnny Williamson - they are talking about that so it is coming with all the consequences - no internet,mobile phones etc.
You used to say in the past that the current system must be destroyed first. I misunderstood as they to mean that the new system will be better for everyone. But looks like you meant the exact opposite. :(
DeleteFirst it is a matter of perception if you read psychological studies you will see that many want to be ruled someone else to decide for them they will be very happy. I have experienced it during the communism. The state decides for you so no need to think it is easier.... but you can not live/work/travel wherever you want this time the excuse will be to save the planet the climate crisis.
DeleteI am on the other side I do not want someone else to decide for me this is nothing more than modern slavery.
Second who says they will make it.... probably they will fail, but create a disaster.
Hello Krasi, I too had misunderstood your comments thinking that you were thinking that a "better" system will emerge to replace the current one. Bitcoin was considered a hot contender at that time though now we know that it will likely be the digital dollar which fed announced recently which allows for more control.
DeleteHow did you conclude that all this intentional versus a result of incompetence or result of a gross policy error? Many people may dismiss all of this as zerohedge news or conspiracy theory but you seem to be among the very few who has acted on it by trying to break away from the system.
I remember you had mentioned during Covid that you were working on a side project and hence spending less time on the blog. I had assumed you took up a full time job or started a business. Looks like you did the opposite. :-)
At the end something better will emerge, but there will be 10 years suffering.
DeleteZerohedge has become mainstream bullshit. I have connected the dots long ago... before the covid scam I though maybe it will not be so bad after that I have changed my mind it will be much worse.
When I left I told my colleagues the goal is to destroy the economy so later to beg for their new world order - of course dismissed as conspiracy theory. Promptly a few months later we have the so called war... and what is the main result of it? - something very strange looking like a war but destroying the economy in full force. Either all are very stupid or doing it on purpose. When you see how they all act as one and the very high level of coordination.... this has nothing to do with random or stupidity.
I am out of conspiracy theories most are fact now.
Yesterday 5w low or 20 days low?
ReplyDeleteso, the most likely 18m low in 3-4 weeks?
DeleteI think so
DeleteHanging man candle today 🧸
ReplyDeleteKrasi, are you considering this consolation here a B wave with a further C up to follow?
ReplyDeletethank you Krasi for your work and also for making me open my eyes to the future to come.
ReplyDelete