Weekly preview

The preffered scenario was something higher and this is what we saw.... We have double zig-zag higher from the last low and a-b-c from the September low - this means corrective move. It makes most sense if we see one more low with divergence for 18m low. The alternate scenario is very choppy start of something higher... not realy convincing at the moment




TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal again. I do not think it is a good time to buy around 10w high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - one more move lower or bottoming expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - too many options with corrective waves, at the moment I think we should see one more lower low .

Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A, currently I expect final low in November.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week... one more low with divergence will look perfect. If we have important low like 18m low bottoming with divergence will look better.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - pointing higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moved above the 25 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range... test of the low will look perfect.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe we have 5w cycle low from the end of September and now higher for 5w high.
The longer cycles are not very clear, the model which makes most sense is shown below - the DAX. I have the suspicion we have 10w high consisting of three cycles.

Week 17+1 for the 20w cycle. Waiting to see where the 20w low is and I think this will be 18m low too.

DAX - this is what makes most sense. Notice how the two 10w highs have the same length and the second one consists of three cycles with the same length and all this at the trend line from the January high... so final push higher to hit the trendline, lower low with divergence and reversal will be a perfection.