Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - no clear direction at the moment.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - pattern is not very clear... it looks like b-wave to me, but I can not confirm it.
Intermediate term - waiting a few weeks for more clarity.... the B-wave is completed or the indices are in wave b/B.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turning higher, next week will confirm low or not.
McClellan Oscillator - retracing higher after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 5w high followed by final decline for 20w cycle low, but if you look the previous 10w cycle there is no 5w high so the price could just continue higher for the 20w high, no way to say at the moment... at least I do not know how to make a difference.
Week 20 for the 20w cycle and possible low. Week 13 for the 20w cycle high.
This is the cycle model with 18m low in October if the B-wave started from this low.
Thank you - Can't this just be a consolation triangle for the larger B wave?
ReplyDeleteIt will take too much time.
DeleteKrasi - do you gave Demark count?
ReplyDeleteNo, I have stopped using it.
DeleteI think last week was 20w low and this one 5w high because otherwise there is two 5w high between 5w low
ReplyDeleteThis 20w cycle is longer than usual and it looks like it consist of two 3x5w cycles.... I wrote about this so I will not be surprised to see one more low.
DeleteBingo.
DeleteReasonable to expect a low next week in that case?
ReplyDeleteIn 2 weeks FOMC it is usually some inflection point and the indices will complete one more 5w cycle.
Deleteit is likely Monday was 5w high
ReplyDeleteIt seems so.
DeleteNew lows are coming
ReplyDeleteLook at the vix, there is no fear, you can see it in the call option
ReplyDeleteYes, exactly what you need at a top.
Deletethe 6-day abc irregular flat bounce we had was something! killed a few bears and got the bulls excited again. we should have a downside acceleration next couple of days after the last 2-day triangle consolidation. thank you krasi for your work.
ReplyDeleteJP
Feels like NFP could send market 2-3% in either direction tomorrow
ReplyDeleteThe most common pattern in the last years is double zig-zag. Two legs lower with the same size and alternation between the zig-zags looks like this - https://invst.ly/-i15z
ReplyDeleteToday the decline completes bounce next week and final low around FOMC:
what do you mean by "final"? Do you mean final for the 20w cycle but not the longer cycle, correct?
ReplyDeleteFinal for this short term move.
DeleteMakes sense, thank you.
DeleteIf we look at DAX, what magnitude on the downside do you see for this short term move? 50% retrace of current year gains?
ReplyDeleteTechnicals ready for a bounce I'm thinking some good news for the banks this weekend
ReplyDelete