Weekly preview

Bounce higher as expected - the 20d high, next week we should see decline into 20d low... maybe the indices turned higher for the 10w cycle high currently at week 6. If we see weak decline next week than this is the case.
Intermediate term - main scenario wave b/B running. Other possible scenarios:
- wave B is completed - this move lower is too slow - we have 5 weeks up and 6 weeks lower which could not take out the previous low plus oversold indicators. So very low probability.
- fear VIX 30, oversold market breadth indicators, headlines and talk about failed banks. So maybe the indices are close to the low for b/B not in the middle of it. The chart for this option is shown below, DJI is good example because it made lower high in January. This is a plausible option.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - pause for a week and lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - two legs lower with the same size and zig-zag higher... is there more to the upside for 10w high?... maybe FOMC is a high or continuation lower next week and final flush lower... it is not possible to say at the moment.
For now sticking to the initial plan shown on the chart.

Intermediate term - in the middle of wave b/B.

Intermediate term - b/B completing with long 20w cycle followed by long cycle for the 20w high.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - at oversold levels, trying to turn higher, but no reversal signs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce higher from very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - hit 30 and retracing.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high, next is decline into 20d low.
Intermediate term possible 10w low and now higher into 10w high.

Possible 20w cycle low or final flush lower next week. Watching the price action next week for further clues. I think we have 40w cycle consisting of three cycles - it looks more and more likely.
Here is how I see the DAX