Weekly preview

The new low is not a surprise - we saw 5w high and now heading lower into intermediate term low. The best explanation I have is the indices are in the middle of b/B and the 40w cycle consists of three cycles. This is shown on the daily chart, this is what makes sense.
Why?
- pattern - because the move lower is slow so it is of the same degree as the previous up move which means we are still in the same pattern and not a reversal.
- cycles - five weeks lower at week 14 this does not fit with expected 20w high... something else is going on.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - bounce soon and lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - in the second zig-zag of a double zig-zag. We should see bottoming and bounce higher.

Intermediate term - what makes sense is shown on the chart - two legs with the same length and the cycles accordingly.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, but nearing the moment for a bounce.
McClellan Oscillator - very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - doing nothing right above the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d low and we should see bounce higher next week for 20d high.
What if the first 20w cycle was short and now the indices are in the middle of the longer 20w cycle...

Week 21, 40w cycle consisting of three cycles looks more and more likely.
The previous 4y cycle high consists of two cycles instead of 3x18m cycles. With the pattern shown on the daily chart this will repeate. This is the reason I am not showing 18m high.