Mar 25, 2023

Weekly preview

Desptite all the talk about failed banks the market follows the expected path and seems not to care. The pattern looks like b/b/B - short said one big nothing. In a week or two when the next decline starts we will see if there is something more beneath the surface.
The speed and size of the moves from different degrees since October.2022 point to corrective moves. The last two weeks despite all the fear have not changed anything. So the forecast has not changed.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in a week or two and lower for 5-7 weeks.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this seems to be the right pattern... now in the middle of the b-wave yellow.


Intermediate term - in the middle of wave b/B.


Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but no reversal signs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - moving higher after very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low expected and higher. The cycle is right translated so we should see one more high which should be 10w cycle high.


Difficult to stick to the theory counting 20w cycle - if we try I would say one short cycle with a low in December and now in the middle of extended 20w cycle.
I think we have 40w cycle consisting of three cycles - it looks much better.

28 comments:

  1. One crazy idea.... I do not believe in expanding triangles and diagonals, but this pattern works for all indices SPX DJI NDX NYSE RUT - https://invst.ly/-msqr
    And it will create max confusion among bulls/bears killing both camps before the trend resuming - this is usually how the market works.

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    1. yesssss!!! i love this crazy idea since i am expecting an outright crash to begin next few days. thank you!!

      JP

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    2. " ... expanding triangles and diagonals, ...", or maybe an asymetric (ugly) rectangle?

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    3. Maybe... to be more accurate running flat like this - https://invst.ly/-mu7k

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    4. Exactly what I was envisioning, Krasi. A "leaning/drunken" rectangle, so to speak. I'll go with the running flat moniker. Thanks.

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    5. i agree .. there needs to be greediness and/or confusion before a drop.. lots of bears right now, and i think everyone is hedged or selling into any rip.. but what you say is correct need both sides capitulate..

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  2. Thanks Krasi, as per your original analysis are you saying that we make a double bottomish in next couple months and then go up one more time before going lower sometimes after 2nd quarter is complete? so nothing substantial down before July or August?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, but this "nothing substantial" easily could be 10%+ decline.

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  3. Elliott waves is difficult

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    1. That is true, especially corrective patterns are difficult to predict - too many options and very often they mutate to another pattern.

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  4. Thanks Krasi. Always enjoy following this page. Educational and interesting

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  5. Tech weakness today, that's different

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  6. Replies
    1. Great news everybody is asleep before the decline into 40w low.

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  7. Fibo measurements for the zig-zags - https://invst.ly/-nt8v
    Today is day 6 so the high should be Monday/Tuesday next week.

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    Replies
    1. So current short-term wave is c/b/B? Thanks.

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    2. Krasi, one other item if you don't mind - do you anticipate that precious metals (GDX especially), which have been pretty much in lock step with equities lately, would also take a nosedive into the 40-week low with stocks?

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    3. c/b/b/B, GDX yes something lower but not below the October low.

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    4. Thank you very much for your insights, Krasi. Much appreciate your efforts here.

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  8. 40w low for the expiration futures of June?

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    Replies
    1. The low should be around mid-May.

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    2. We must anticipate the possibility that March was 20w low with 22 weeks and the next 20w cycle lasts less, 14-15 weeks until the end of June

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  9. .618 got this morning and also daily bb.

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  10. A Bloomberg "talking head" just reported that 90% of S&P's gains this year were by just FOUR stocks - AAPL, NVDA, META, and MSFT. Sounds like a Bull Market to me, LOL.

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  11. Because they are looking to spy instead of of the tech. that is lead the market,. and krasi think I am stupid

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    Replies
    1. This is a psychological game and I think you can not play it.
      It has nothing to do with smart or stupid this is not a logical game.

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  12. Hi Krasi, what is your opinion on DXY? You had mentioned previously that the high is behind us which is what it looks like. But do you see it going higher again as stocks head into 4y low?

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