Weekly preview

Desptite all the talk about failed banks the market follows the expected path and seems not to care. The pattern looks like b/b/B - short said one big nothing. In a week or two when the next decline starts we will see if there is something more beneath the surface.
The speed and size of the moves from different degrees since October.2022 point to corrective moves. The last two weeks despite all the fear have not changed anything. So the forecast has not changed.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in a week or two and lower for 5-7 weeks.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this seems to be the right pattern... now in the middle of the b-wave yellow.

Intermediate term - in the middle of wave b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but no reversal signs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - moving higher after very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low expected and higher. The cycle is right translated so we should see one more high which should be 10w cycle high.

Difficult to stick to the theory counting 20w cycle - if we try I would say one short cycle with a low in December and now in the middle of extended 20w cycle.
I think we have 40w cycle consisting of three cycles - it looks much better.