Trading trigger - buy signal, extended cycles, overdue for a top.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - impotant high expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - triple zig-zag or impulse, make your choice - it does not matter, at the end a pattern is close to completition.
Intermediate term - the indices are close to the top of the correction. It is a complex pattern there is different possible combinations and I am not sure where the B-wave starts - in June or October. It could be w-x-y or triangle starting in June. The last move lower lasted 5 weeks now after 6 weeks still lower high - this means this is a leg from the same bigger pattern. Multiple divergences so close to completition.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new maybe, topping...
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - at the long term trend line.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high on Tuesday, now close to 20d low. One more 20d high will complete third 5w cycle for extended 10w/20w cycle high - this makes most sense.
The most likely scenario is extended 20w cycle low(in March) lasting 21 weeks and now close to the high of extended 20w cycle high currently at week 20. Both cycles have extended second 10w cycle consisting of three 5w cycles.
Excellent job Krasi, 4200 still the goal
ReplyDeletethanks a million krasi, very helpful. what a frustrating trading week typical of opex scam... anyway i may have doubts about a new high, especially if we break the so stubbornly defended 4137-45 (ES) level early this week. it's like they are scared to break it :) we'll see.
ReplyDeleteone more thing, Lady S didn't show up for a while so maybe indeed we do get to the 4200 for one last greeting from her:)))
DeleteJP
You can make fun of lady S but it has paid off well to be bullish over the last few months, especially in many individual stocks or even NQ.
DeleteIt is not about what happened in the last few months...
DeleteLady S is explaining that the bear market is over and "it is so strong" which is bullshit of course.
And this is repeating for years - learned zero, very excited on every top.... typical sheeple.
I think we can see now the end, they can go up a little bit more but the long denger, I talked about long from 11000, it's finished
ReplyDeleteAnd it was a very nice tred
ReplyDeleteThe dolar ha to go up if spy go doun
ReplyDeleteLittle did we know Lady S is a multi billionaire manipulating this market - doh! 🤯
ReplyDeleteOr crayfishing back the assertion that the markets were headed to the moon, as usual.
ReplyDeleteOn April 21, 2023, per John Murphy (yeah, the guy who wrote THE book on T.A.): "MORE NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES... My message from a couple of weeks ago showed various measures of market breadth failing to keep up with the S&P 500 which suggested that the current stock rally was on weak technical footing. Unfortunately, that situation hasn't improved. A number of breath measures continue lag behind the SPX. Two of them are shown in Chart 1. The black bars in the lower box show the S&P 500 up against potential chart resistance at its February peak. That's an important test. The red line in the top box shows the percent of S&P stocks above their 200-day moving average trading well below its February peak. That negative divergence suggests that the broader market is failing to keep pace with the SPX. The blue line in the middle box shows the percent of SPX stocks above their 50-day average weakening as well. In fact, the blue line peaked in early December near 90% and has since fallen below 60%. Both lines suggest that fewer stocks are participating in the market rally." Further paragraph: "SMALL CAP DIVERGENCE... Chart 2 shows where a lot of the weakness in market breadth is coming from. It shows Russell 2000 Small Cap iShares diverging badly from the S&P 500 Large Cap Index since early March. As often happens, small caps led the market rally that lasted into early February. But they also have a history of leading market declines. A lot of the weakness in smaller stocks may be tied to the March plunge in banking shares which are heavily represented in the IWM, and which remain weak. Even with that caveat, the negative divergence in smaller stocks is worrisome." 'Nuff said.
ReplyDeletethe only way the bloody 4137 (ES) is going to break is through an overnight gap down. it's becoming ridiculous. lets see.
ReplyDeleteJP
"(ES)" - ??? Thanks.
DeleteES is the s&p futures
DeleteThanks for the clarification - I tend to "tunnel vision" on the cash index $SPX ticker
DeleteIt looks like reversal lower into 10w low. This is week 7 already so if B is complete the price should move lower very fast.
ReplyDeleteIf we see slow move in the next weeks which can not take out the last low B is not complete and we have complex w-x-y pattern.
With the "strong" earnings by Big Tech companies after hours today, I am betting on the w-x-y alternative to come, which would work superbly with a PSQ drop to ~12.00 for a bullish weekly chart divergence(s) versus the indicators/oscillators.
Deleteagree, i think we crash into mid-late next week first.
DeleteJP
Which low are you referring to? March 13? Thx,
DeleteYes, the last low in March. Breaking below it means cycle of higher degree(40w) has turned lower.
DeleteIf not the indices are still in this sideways pattern.
It looks like the crash could be for tomorrow not next week :) we'll see
DeleteJP
Bounce tomorrow but aapl will kill it 😊
DeleteKrasi, off on a different tangent, TLT has been forming a flat / rectangle on the weekly chart, indicating quite a fight between the bond bulls and bears. Do you see any hints or indications for a greater expectation of the direction of breakout of said formation, or must one simply wait for a breakout / breakdown of the flat? Thanks much.
ReplyDelete132 on zb has been rejected multiple times, holding over it for a month and bonds will explode up
DeleteThe break out will be higher the 4y cycle is pointing higher.
DeleteThank you for your take/input.
Delete5w low yerterday?
ReplyDeleteIf the indices are still in b/B I will not be surprised to see another extended 10w cycle - in this case yes.
DeleteUsually it should not be so long 6-7 weeks.
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DeleteWould you mind posting what u see short term from here? Thx
ReplyDeleteCurrent view:
ReplyDeleteShort term - https://invst.ly/-vxlf
Long term - https://invst.ly/-vxd3
Yep, tech earnings continue to goose the euphoria onward/upward. w-x-y on the way ...
ReplyDeleteDid yesterdays strong pm session invalidate that short term view? Thx
ReplyDeleteNo
Delete