Trading trigger - buy signal.... short cycleonly 31 days?
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - impotant high expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag higher, sideways correction and now another zig-zag higher.
Intermediate term - the indices are close to the top of the correction. It is a complex pattern there is different possible combinations and I am not sure where the B-wave starts - in June or October. It could be w-x-y or triangle starting in June.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed some pointing higher other pointing lower in the middle of the ranges... only the complacency is high.
McClellan Oscillator - now above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - up another low and more complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high maybe around FOMC then it will get interesting.
The low this week is it long 5w cycle or short 10w cycle? The previous high is 10w high and the next high should be 20w high to complete the B-wave so in theory judging by the neighbouring highs this should be 10w low.
Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Close to important high and next should be the last 40w cycle of the 4y cycle.
thank you krasi, very helpful as always. i still have a cycle low mid-late this coming week, which could be the 10 week low. the explosive rally we had the last 3 days may be the entire B wave of the correction we began on april 19 (irregular) and the coming decline would be the C wave, which could be violent. i guess it will all depend on the fomc reaction and their manipulation.. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
the example you mention about last mid-december fits this scenario perfectly..
DeleteJP
No mas
ReplyDeleteMaybe this - https://invst.ly/-xf5p
ReplyDeleteIt works for most of the indices...
Doesn't feel very impulsive. Abc with b next?
ReplyDeletei think wave B tops tomorrow around 4120-35 (ES) and we crash into early next week to test 4000 (ES). we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
or we crash straight into 4000 level based on the lack of strength here..
DeleteJP
Short-term, with $SPX today now breaking April 26th low, therefore zig-zag option out of the cards, and now a flat instead to complete waves b and c?
ReplyDelete" ... waves b and c ..." of x-a-b-c(y)
Delete"The longer the party, the bigger the hangover ..."
ReplyDeleteIt looks like complex b-wave - https://invst.ly/-yle5
ReplyDeleteI agree with this, rsi warning of a sell off into next week, maybe starting today
DeleteKrasi, if we are in the last phase of the 4 year cycle, shouldn't SPX have more bearishness?
ReplyDelete10w low?
ReplyDeleteif we keep on going up into monday and break this 4135-40 level we are at now, it may start looking bullish and the 10 week low could be confirmed as of yesterday. need to be flexible here..
ReplyDeleteJP
we need to reverse right here right now or the bulls take control..
DeleteJP