Trading trigger - buy signal, mature time for turn lower.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in the next weeks and lower for 2-3 months.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looks like wave 4-5/c to complete another zig-zag.
Intermediate term - it seems this scenario is playing out. Alternate the indices are still in b/B or it could be very complex w-x-y with y triangle currently c/y of this triangle.
Long term - monthly chart, month 16 from the last high so it is time for 18m high. Look at MA20 - the price is below it and testing it. This is the weakest price action since 2009, until 2022 we had only short living breaks below it.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher.
McClellan Oscillator - lower after overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - pause in the move lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - at overbought levels.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I expect 20d low early next and final high for 10w cycle high.
Week 4 for the 20w cycle. This is week 18 for the 20w cycle high and week 34 for the 40w cycle high - the average is 16-18/32-36 weeks so the indices are in the time window for a high.
thank you krasi. you don't think there is a possibility that late april early may could be the 40 week low in which case we could have a significant decline over the next month ? i know it goes against your early may high forecast but maybe it is a possibility ? thank you once again
ReplyDeleteJP
Everything is possible, this will be the case that the indices are still in b/B. Most of the indices look like this is the pattern, SPX looks stronger because of tech stocks.
Delete$SPX is currently greatly outpacing S&P500 Equal Weighted Index to the upside, so more evidence that it's only a matter of time for bigger reversal to the downside. "Smoke and Mirrors" until then ...
ReplyDelete$SPX vs. $SPXEW tickers for above
DeleteYes, this still could be b/B most of the indices look better this way.
DeleteThanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteKrasi, with today's BTC breakout, would you now agree that it is on a different cycle compared to SPY?
ReplyDeleteThere is no break out, there is no different cycle.
DeleteBTC is not alternative or safe haven - it is the same shit(greed) in different wrapping(excuse).
:-)
DeleteDo you think gold and silver are at the beginning of a strong uptrend?
ReplyDeleteNo, there is one more sell wave before the 4y cycle low and everything will be sold as always.
DeleteNeither precious metals nor crypto are safe haven... not now.
Seeing up for a blast to 4200 with the announcement today. That should convince everyone we're not going down. Only problem is the weekly bb and weekly 100ma are both there.
ReplyDelete