Trading trigger - neutral.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like mirror image of the prior zig-zag and double top as suggested.
Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - some kind of bottoming.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - if we have a top this is the cycle count which fits. Next is decline into 20d/5w/10w cycle low.
At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 13 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.
blowoff is probably underway. we should top between this friday nfp figure and next week. question is what is the spx upside target 5550? 5580? krasi any suggestion? thank you
ReplyDeleteWe will have two legs with the same size around 5560.
DeleteKrasi, what do you think about TNX and dexy?
ReplyDelete