Jun 8, 2024

Weekly preview

Nothing new - the SPX looks like impulse probably in iv/5 and around FOMC v/5 should complete the pattern from October 2022.
NDX/SPX look stronger because of NVDA stock but it is at major top. The other indices with weak retracement and overall divergences daily,weekly,monthly for all indices.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, another extended cycle at the length where we see reversal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the late stages of a fifth wave. iv/5 should be running and v/5 around FOMC...


Intermediate term - some kind of topping pattern testing the top with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly.


Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - sligthly higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - again it looks like extended 10w cycle near completition with 6x20d/3x5w cycles.


At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.

11 comments:

  1. I have not seen such a perfect impulse - iii subdivide in clear five ways, alternation between wave ii sharp decline and iv sideways correction...
    Currently at (iii)/v/5 - https://invst.ly/155zqy

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  2. Krasi. so is it gonna go up or go down? its drag on far too long now.

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  3. Same story ….next week is high before pullback

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  4. it looks like we may be going higher short term. the energizer on steroids. would not be surprised if we test the 5500 sp level next few days. regardless this is not going to end well..

    JP

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    Replies
    1. we may get to some sort of a high tomorrow/friday towards the close around 5460-70 spx. next week should be down. not sure if this high is an important one or some more to go up in july. well see.

      JP

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