Intermediate term view - too early to be bearish but now watching closely.
The short term played out exactly as expected. Now for the next week it is difficult to predict the path. Five waves up or a little bit higher left on Monday so it is time to be cautious. If I am right the indexes should start topping , which does not exclude higher prices, it means up and down moves. Still bullish action and too early to get bearish. Now I am just watching to see how it develops. Without a sign you do not flip bullish/bearish, wait for confirmation.
March is one of the Months when reversals usually occur... so watching and waiting to see if I am right.
P.S. On Sunday I will post something which I think is important and interesting about the other and the long term.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - bullish above the last support level around 2070 and watching for further signs.
Intermediate term - no change
Long term - no change. Divergences which support the idea of a correction.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - have reached the minimum levels where a swing could top out and we have triple divergence on most of the indicators. Now watching for reversal signs.
McClellan Oscillator - three lower highs... bad signs unless the index start moving higher rapidly.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but lower highs.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - reached overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but several lower highs.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moved above 75 about the same story triple divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - moved lower as expected but we have a divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - very weak, with series of lower highs.
HURST CYCLES
Day 14 of the current 40 day cycle.
Week 3 of the current 20 week cycle.
Following closely the current 20 week cycle... when it tops the indexes should move lower to 18 month cycle low and the low for the year.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 8 of a setup... I think it will be finished and than we see what happens.
Carnap:
ReplyDeleteHello krasi, your announcement sounds interesting.
I have posted an overview to the TD Sequential on SPX on different time frames.
https://chartbuster.wordpress.com/
What we have to state is a big break out campaign with an increasing market breath that will last for several weeks and up to six month before we could see a bigger correction.
The actual move has to reach min. 2140. Nevertheless we will probably see a minor correction starting Tuesday/Wednesday next week correcting back to 2090, 2073 or even 2064 before the trend upwards will continue.
I think the same a pullback and another move higher, but I do not think it will last longer than another 2-3 weeks.
DeleteI am just watching now and stay bullish until I see something else.
Krasi, are u bullish on EEM? Has TLT found a bottom this week?
ReplyDeleteEEM - I think it is a corrective move, it moves as expected and I think we will see a reversal lower with the major indexes.
DeleteTLT - probably, but I expect lower high. The move lower was expected, but corrective wave 4.... the way it developed killed my bullish view. It is too strong, huge monthly bar, 5 waves lower, breaking below several support levels, overlapping with previous moves... add to this cycles(see my new post yields cycle chart) and I can not see something bullish for the intermediate term based on technical analysis.
There were no signs for such thing I was totally surprised... but it happens sometimes.