Feb 22, 2015
What about the other markets?
The first great opportunity for this year will be buying stocks after a correction. I have already written about that. The second one which should be even more profitable is precious metals and gold miners. I know I know they are very hated, the direction is only down:) I have spent a lot of time watching the charts and I will wrote more about this market. Than I have decided to look at the charts of the other asset classes and the astonishing is that I see everywhere major trend changes. I have not the time for a comprehensive analysis of all the markets, probably my cycle count/EW is not perfect, but I see the same literally everywhere !!!????!!!! it could not be a coincidence. I think it is important if you are trading. I will share the charts and some thoughts and you can make your conclusion. My personal opinion - 2015 will be an important year and we will see a lot of trend changes... the year has started crazy, volatile, CBs are nervous definitely something is going on. To summarize - for the indexes I expect 18 month cycle low and the low for the year in the next several months, USD major top, Bonds long term top or even the top of the bond bull, commodities long term or major bottom. Overall it looks like the trend changes will happen between May and October.... but the bonds are in a hurry, I think we saw the top already:)) If the dollar start moving lower for years the logical conclusion is the commodities(depressed for years) should surge and if the money starts moving out of bonds the stocks should rise. I am not a fundamental guy just thoughts... it looks like an inflationary environment is coming. As I have already wrote the CBs will continue to do what they do until they lose control and everything implodes, but before that we will see crazy stuff to the upside. - GOLD and MINERS I think we will see a long term bottom in precious metals. Even if it is only a corrective move I expect 50% retracement or something like gold at 1500 USD. There is many ways to play the move: - the classical is ETF GLD - many do not like it saying paper gold they do not have the physical metal. For trading is ok, for investing in gold I do not think so. I have found an interesting alternative buying shares CEF (Central Fund of Canada). There are since 1961 on the market and store physical gold and silver in vaults in Canada. They DO NOT sell their gold ans silver. It is an alternative of paper gold or storing physical gold on your own... it is something in middle if you want to invest in gold. Make your research I do not want to give you wrong information. - the more profitable and more risky approach is buying gold miners shares - usually they move 3x-4x times the move in gold. If we see 50% move in gold it is easily 200% in gold miners. I will not be surprised to see many of them to tripling. To the charts - gold has very consistent cycle 22-24 weeks and an yearly cycle 45-48 weeks. The only exception was the steep decline in 2013. This is normal when the move is very sharp the cycle is usually shorter. The move is compressed in time, it is exhausting itself faster. If my cycle count is right we should see a 4 and 8 year cycle low in September. The current cycle is at week 16 and the top for the current cycle should be behind us than we have one more 22-24 cycle before a major bottom. EW - there is room for an interpretation, but the move lower looks like an impulse. The best fit with cycles is that we are in wave iii of 5 to finish the current cycle and iv and v of 5 will be the last cycle before 4 year and 8 year bottom. There is support around 1000 and MACD on weekly chart is expected to make a long term divergence. In several months we will check the charts to see if they confirm the plan. HERE is a post about bonds from a guy which is trading professionally using Husrt cycles. You can read more if you want.