Short term view - choppy start of the week than higher.
Intermediate term view - still up... probably another week or two, but watching closely now for reversal signs.
As expected the move up continued after a pause for a day. The charts and indicators are still pointing higher so the expected minimum of 2-3 weeks higher will be achieved:) After that I will be careful.
Short term the move up does not look finished and I think we will see more to the upside but nothing huge...
Intermediate term - the indexes are moving higher that is not a surprise... everybody is bullish counting new ATHs, break outs.... no so fast.
I think the move is weaker compared to previous moves from cycle lows, TomDemark setup had price flip in the middle another sign for a weaker move... market breadth is pointing higher but I think will see triple long term divergences on most of the indicators. I think this confirms my intermediate term view that a correction should start soon.
Below you can see the updated charts Russel2000 and DJTA. I wrote two months ago about expanded flat and wave 4 and since than nothing has changed and I do not see a reason to change the forecast at the moment.
Look at Russell2000 - the moves are with corrective nature, I do not see impulses and I think this is an expanded flat.
What if I am wrong - the move higher will accelerate and we will see higher prices SP500 around 2240... would you complain about some extra money?:)
Short term - choppy start of the week before continuing higher. Any move lower should stay above the support level 2065-2070. Move below it will be bearish.
Intermediate term - the targets with Fibo extensions....(the first target is 2135-2140 of course:)
Long term - no change. Momentum is still up but I expect to see another divergence - MACD, RSI, histogram
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - still pointing up, yes the move up is not over, but I think the indicators are weaker and we will see triple long term divergence on many of them.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high at the moment.. strength is missing.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, I expect another lower high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal. I expect to see a triple divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher. I expect another lower high.
Fear Indicator VIX - expect to see another higher low when the move is over an triple divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - the same story moving higher, but I expect lower high and triple divergence.
At day 10 of the current 40day cycle.
At week 2 of the current 20 week cycle. Following closely the current 20 week cycle... when it tops the indexes should move lower to 18 month cycle low and the low for the year.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
There was a price flip on Monday and we have again 4 of a setup. As I have mentioned I expect to see a weaker move compared to previous bottoms.
DJ Transportation Average - I still think it is in wave 4.
Russell2000 - I think it is an expanded Flat.