May 10, 2018

Update

SP500 10min chart - instead of a pullback we have another move higher. Now it looks way too much like another zig-zag, I do not believe in extended fifth wave or 1-2 i-ii.

17 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,

    It makes sense as there is probably a bearish harmonic pattern forming (i.e. gartley) which last leg would be the final zigzag on picture above, a little bit higher though > ~2730. I don't trade harmonics but lots o people do, which i guess is one of many sides of the same coin

    Regards,

    Mily

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  2. Replies
    1. No, I will wait for confirmation.

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    2. should have soon i would think

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    3. Thanks as always for your analysis. I'm wondering what you would want to see for confirmation. Volume has been below average over the past few days which lends me to believe the move up is lacking conviction. Side note, any thoughts on BTC leading market moves from a perspective of investor euphoria?

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    4. Corrective with low volume etc. but it is moving vertically up and the pattern was not looking finished.
      That is why the small pullback and higher high on the chart which we see today.
      Hourly the price much higher above MA50 and RSI showing strength overbought, daily the histogram accelerating higher.
      Trying to nail the top and shorting such moves is not the best strategy.
      The usual behavior is it takes a few days to calm down and in the mean time MA50 catches up and/or the price drops closer to MA50 and bounces from it(do not expect plunge with strength above MA50), RSI drops below 70 and usually lower high with divergences follows, the daily histogram forms a tower.
      Then comes the time to short when you see the first cracks - something lower followed by weaker bounce with lower or higher high what ever comes.
      It may look less profitable, but it is not. You have clear defined pattern and clear defined risk. This way you will have more winning trades and you can trade bigger positions which leads to more and bigger profits.
      Of course this does not work always the price can just reverse and plunge, but who can guarantee that it will not do the opposite just continuing vertically higher - in this case you can not define a trade.
      I just do not see a reason to chase every move, it is far easier and more profitable to chasse moves with high probability and low risk.

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    5. Louis Lombardi-probably it will take 2-3 days.

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    6. yes i agree im thinking uvxy and spxs watching closely

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    7. A shooting star today would be pretty nice.

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  3. And Gold should finish wave 4 up and begin final down wave? Thanks.

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  4. How about XBI it's also ABC to reach top or?? Today It's so strong...

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    Replies
    1. Not sure... theoretically the final wave higher should be running.

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  5. I love these updates! Thanks. There's a lot to thinking about here.

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  6. Hi Krasi,
    According to textbook triangle corrections the last dip on May 03 completed the process. First we got a major drop and then two triangles followed, one bigger and the last one smaller. In total we got 3 tests of 200 average line. Exactly what you would expect. Assuming that was wave 4 we should be looking forward to the commencement of wave 5 of V, right? So the impulse from May 4 should be the wave #1 of that sequence and the upcoming selloff should represent wave #2 of the sequence. So why do you suggest that this is some kind of corrective pattern now, that’s not finished that this is c or e or whatever? Trying only to understand. Thanks Krasi
    Kris

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  7. Looking at market breadth and the indicators the move from the April low does not look like two distinct waves the opposite - part of a bigger pattern. The supposed wave E should be just correction in a bigger pattern.

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