May 16, 2018

Update

Here is how the triangle pattern should look like. Many think that the triangle is finished than we should see two more highs for finished impulse wave 1 of V(white labels). I am not a big fan of this scenario. The triangle which I follow is the yellow one in this case we should see a drop lower for w3 of a of E. The move from the top is an impulse for me and the white triangle(E) has low probability.... who knows it could be even something completely different than a triangle.
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17 comments:

  1. meltMay 16, 2018, 10:28:00 PM

    Look at IWM.. all time highs today. Doesn’t have make your bearish projection less viable ?

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    1. KrasiMay 17, 2018, 7:08:00 AM

      Not at all the pattern for the RUT is ED, it has not changed for months now finishing wave iii of the diagonal. I will not be surprised to see 50% retracement for wave iv to 154-155.

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    2. meltMay 17, 2018, 11:32:00 PM

      Hi Krasi - thanks for the reply. What does ED mean? Sorry if I sound dumb.

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    3. CTHueyMay 18, 2018, 12:30:00 AM

      Ending diagonal

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  2. SteveMay 17, 2018, 1:30:00 AM

    Thanks for the mid-week update. I prefer these updates to the daily email conversations that you feel obligated to engage in.

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    1. KrasiMay 17, 2018, 7:25:00 AM

      Most traders are impatient and/or think that every move is important.... that is why all the questions. I understand that, for 10 years watching charts I would say 8 even 9 I was doing the same:) In the last 2 years my thinking has gradually changed, I moved to longer time frames and I approach the market as a trader and analysis just support the trading plan. Most moves on the hourly chart even daily mean nothing, there is a trend that is all.

      What we see in the last few months is one of the most difficult patterns - what I do? my analysis is good enough so at bottoms I add longs and at tops I close half of it. I made some money, I do no expect to make a fortune with such ugly pattern. Just waiting to see what exactly is going on and in the mean time make small trades. I do not worry much about small waves b etc. crap.

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  3. AnonymousMay 17, 2018, 12:23:00 PM

    Hi krasi! Thx for the update and comments!
    Keeping in mind short term moves are unreliable, what is the time limit for this zig zag up to finish and validate the downward impulse ? Put it another way, whatever the price does ! Shouldn’t we reverse down today at the latest to validate the impulse down? Thx a lot!

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    1. KrasiMay 17, 2018, 2:47:00 PM

      Yes, price could make higher high, but it should turn lower and not close at the high for the day.... 2-3 days higher will be too much

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  4. AnonymousMay 17, 2018, 4:43:00 PM

    More and more the down move on Tuesday looks like wave 4 or some correction and our current move is C or 5? Thanks for the update. Usually we should see impulsive down move on the third day and most likely jump down...

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  5. CTHueyMay 17, 2018, 8:56:00 PM

    It looks like the ^GSPC is following Oil's lead.

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    1. KrasiMay 18, 2018, 10:03:00 AM

      This is not good Oil makes an important top this year.... in fact stocks too.

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  6. AnonymousMay 18, 2018, 12:48:00 AM

    Hi Krasi,

    May I ask for your thoughts on 10Y? Looking at the 10Y yield TNX or 10Y treasury futures (ZNc1 on Saxo) i'm not quite sure the count, IMHO it's either finished or close to finish with small wave 5 missing (but no divergences on RSI, however extreme spec net 10y futures short which is usually a good contrarian sign), or it's a short stop before bigger wave up TNX (down for futures which is bond price), really appreciate your time Krasi!

    Regards,

    Mily

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    1. KrasiMay 18, 2018, 6:20:00 AM

      TNX is finishing an impulse from the September 2017 low. Intermediate term top is imminent with double RSI divergence on the daily chart.
      Maybe 5 of 5 of 5 is missing, but with such a mature pattern you can never say if it will appear or not.

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  7. AnonymousMay 18, 2018, 9:26:00 AM

    Hello krasi! So much zig zags.... it’s virtually impossible to try and count patterns... I find it disturbing though that the topping takes so much time.. usually it’s merely coiling for another up move that break resistance and burn options premium... what are your thoughts krasi? Thx and good luck!

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    1. KrasiMay 18, 2018, 10:34:00 AM

      Yes, a lot of combinations are possible. Overall two options:
      - Bullish case triangle or complex w-x-y and final wave higher.
      - Bearish case Feb was the first leg lower, now some complex B and one more leg C lower to follow.

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  8. CTHueyMay 18, 2018, 3:04:00 PM

    I think there needs to be a jolt that pushes the ^gspc under the 100 day sma for the yellow/E to play out. Possible catalysts by what I perceive to be most likely would be negative trade news (NAFTA, China, and now Europe), 10Y approaching 3.15, geopolitical unrest, or sudden drop/spike in oil. Bulls have been defending the 100 day which is also about where the negative trend line from from the January highs was most recently broken. A break below that will disrupt their calm and send them running to the exits eying the price action between the 100 day sma and 200 that has occurred over the past weeks/months. I think an intraday move under 2700 would trigger this.

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  9. AnonymousMay 18, 2018, 6:08:00 PM

    If there's another impulsive wave up in short term, what's the possible pattern? How about we are still in wave D? Not sure whether it can extend so long...But if wave B can extend quite long, why not wave D?

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