Intermediate term view - I see another zig-zag most likely part of wave D of a triangle and wave E to begin next week.
We have the move higher, but it escalated very quickly with a brief pause at resistance(the neckline of possible IHS). I see two legs higher for another a-b-c. To spin it bullish(wave V already running) - extended wave 5 or 1-2 i-ii or continuation higher for w3 followed by w4 and w5. I do not think the price action is so bullish and this counts do not fit so good. The plan seems to work so far, so sticking to the plan - another zig-zag for wave D. From trading perspective - closing again half of the position and waiting to see what happens. If it is E reducing even more the position if it is an impulse and we see only a correction I will add again to the position. Market breadth and the indicators need more time to reset and I do not see imminent bearish reversal. On the daily chart is shown bearish pattern if the top is really behind us. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks to me like two legs up with the same size so I expect short term top next week. Usually such shallow short living pauses are wave b or 4 and not 2 and I do not like the bullish counts.
If the price action is really so bullish and impulse is running it should continue higher for wave 3.
Intermediate term - the plan looks ok so far - wave D. Looking at the RSI the whole move from the April low belongs to one bigger wave and not to two different waves(wave D and E for finished triangle).
Bearish option is shown in white I do not like the super bearish counts 1-2 i-ii. This is the alternate scenario which I have shown on the weekly cycle chart last week.
Long term - one more rally higher expected. The histogram needs more time to reset so in the next two months the price should still move higher.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - positive, but not showing much strength.
McClellan Oscillator - at elevated levels where we see a short term top and second lower high, not very bullish.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but strength is missing.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - below 13 a lot of complacency again.
Advance-Decline Issues - third lower high and divergences, not very bullish.
HURST CYCLES
Day 29 of the 40 day cycle. It looks mature now.
Week 13.... a few more weeks to finish 20 week cycle - wave E? (this is the bearish cycle count if the triangle plays out I will revert to my initial count with shorter cycles)
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 6 of a sell setup... waiting to see if it will be finished next week or not.
The daily histogram should finish second tower with divergences next week. It does not look like the acceleration to continue for wave 3.
It seems this up move is like impulsive three waves... What's the maximum point for wave D to be valid? Thanks for the update.
ReplyDeleteIt could be even above D and the triangle is still valid.
DeleteWatch for two moves up with the same size.
Now it seems some top is there? Or another small high in hourly chart.
ReplyDeleteIf it is D topping has begun
Deleteits seems like it wants to popup to 2800
ReplyDeleteIt look like a corrective move, which is finishing. Unlikely to move to 2800 id you ask me.
Deleteafter this move down into the 18th 2630 we will hit 2800
Deletekrasi how far down is the spx going
DeleteAt least to MA200 and if triangle is the right pattern even lower.
DeleteHi krasi ! Assuming the hourly move down is over now, do we need a bounce with lower high or with a target of circa 2750 to finish D and start wave IV/E ? Thx a lot!
ReplyDeleteOne more low for the day will look better for finished impulse. If wave D of a triangle is the right pattern we should see a bounce with lower high and continuation lower.
DeleteSo are we in wave b for small retracement or? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSome retracement after impulse yesterday.
DeleteIt should be bigger because XLF and RUT should make higher high for a short term top.
The retracement is so high (like QQQ) that it's possible the down wave yesterday is just wave 4 and another wave 5 is on the way to finish the impulsive...
DeleteLess likely it look like impulse lower and zig-zag higher so far
DeleteThanks. And has gold bottomed? Or what's its potential target? 1250? Thanks.
DeleteThanks for the updates Krasi. Do you have a view on RUT in terms of whether that's a tradable short on this 'higher high for a short term top'...seems like a completely different pattern so far vs the other indexes, so not even sure what EW it's in... thanks in advance
Deletee.g., I see a descending triangle for SPX/Dow vs an ascending triangle for RUT, and arguably a Head and Shoulder for NDX...
DeleteFor the RUT I always said it is an ED.... even two or three weeks ago posted one more time and explained why I think the huge sell off is not the beginning of a bear market rather intermediate term low for wave IV and now wave V is running as ED.
DeleteWith the higher high yesterday it is confirmed.
Gold have enough waves for finished pattern. Further forecast are not very reliable and at the moment I do not have time to dig very deep other markets and say something useful.
DeleteRUT - if the pattern continue to work short term top is imminent - wave iii of the ED diagonal and wave iv should start. Most likely it will decline to MA50 on the daily chart and 50% Fibo from the last move 1560 area +-10 points.
DeleteThanks Krasi.... from another response, sounds like you're not shorting this move, which is all I needed to know in terms of conviction/risk/reward. I will keep trying to pick bottoms (buying dips/selling rips).
ReplyDeleteor actually let me rephrase, you're only going to short if there is 100% confirmation :) otherwise buy the dips/sell the rips. Appreciate your help as always!
ReplyDeleteToo short for me... now I am very busy and tired, no time to chase them.
Delete