May 19, 2018
Update
I was very busy this week and I am tired so just a short update... it does not happened anything anyway. It is basically the same like the last two posts.
We have a sideway move in a tight range for several days which does not favor neither of both triangle scenarios from the previous post. It is very unlikely that this is small wave iv(white labels previous chart) running 4-5 days so the impulse is dead for me. I did not believe in finished triangle anyway because the daily RSI shows a move has begun in early April and it is still running so the white triangle is dead for me. Now to focus what could it be.
We have a move which begun early April and it is obviously corrective so the both alive scenarios are wave D of a triangle or diagonal.
In the first case the price should start moving lower quickly and break below the support area then test it and drop again.
In the case of a diagonal we should see another choppy move lower correcting 50% and testing the support area for wave 4 of the diagonal.
I have shown this scenario as alternate option last week and with this "doing nothing" whole week the probability is rising rapidly.
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Hi Krasi
ReplyDeleteI am just wondering..with Nasdaq expanded flat correction which ended on April 04 and Russell 2000 also similar pattern which ended around the same time the path of s&p 500 should follow those two indices higher and faster now. Especially Russell with its new highs. It seems to me that the correction was over in April and now s&p and Dow will try to make new highs. This leads me to believe that your suggestion in the above chart of another low to finish the triangle is misplaced, it does not reconcile with Nasdaq and Russell. The second question is about RSI and the price of the index: if RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, the current situation, what do we pay attention to first? The shape of the index and its alignment with the other indexes or the RSI and other technicals? It seems to me that the former has the upper hand. On top of that the indexes should complete the last sequence of 5 waves, 1st of which should be running now. Based on the above it seems to me that s&p may rally to 2800 resistance for its first wave completion before turning lower with its second one. By then, when the s&p is at 2800, the RSI should be flashing overbought warning signs for the second wave retracement. Would you agree with this alternative scenario? Thank you for all your work here.
Kris
Excellent work Krasi! I love your diagonal count, it fits best with the behavior that we have seen in QQQ and IWM.Thanks again for sharing your opinion here.
ReplyDeleteThis chart might already be outdated with futures up quite hard.
ReplyDeleteHi krasi! Hope you better!
ReplyDeleteWith the futures so strong, does this validate the diagonal? Or are your sticking to the triangle one if we don’t close near the top today? Thx
market will jump in june in my opinion 2830 then down
ReplyDeleteI do not see anything new. I do not see an impulse. I do not see a break out. I do not see 2830.
ReplyDeleteThe same corrective patterns.
Thanks for the update. It seems the current move up is either ED or 5 waves up? If it's ED, that means potentially C of ABC up and a large down wave... And how about GOLD and DXY GOLD has reached bottom and DXY should finish this impulsive up?
DeleteGold looks like finished impulse USD like the top of wave 3.
DeleteSP500 when we see the move lower we will know what is going on.
Given the index has been hanging around the range for such extended time? which wave it can be? some kind of wave 4 or round top?
ReplyDeleteWave 4 from diagonal is a possibility... I do not see some important top.
Deletebig reversal looks like 2830 to me
ReplyDeleteVery unlikely.
Deleteso whats your target?
DeleteSee the chart above, nothing has changed.
Deletein june it will
DeleteDo you believe qqq to make a test of may high?
ReplyDeleteIt is testing the high. If you ask if it will squeeze another few points higher or not I can not tell.
DeleteWhat is your opinion on Indian Index Nifty and USDINR?
ReplyDeleteI do not follow this markets. Quick look for Nifty one small up and down to finish the current move lower then bigger retracement.
DeleteThank you for all the work. Looking forward to hear from you.
ReplyDeleteIt's the battle of the 100 day.
ReplyDeleteFrom daily chart, it has been so long hanging around the tight range... What's the pattern? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI think b from wave 4 of a diagonal.
DeleteThanks, that means short term it's going to go down to finish wave 4 and final wave 5 to finish the diagonal?
DeleteSo we have two reversal candles in a row on qqq. Doesn’t that imply we should move higher now?
ReplyDeleteYes, for a day or two.
DeleteSo when is the intermediate term bottom for Gold and Gold miner? Thanks. Currently gold looks like already bottomed or still another wave down to test/verify the final bottom?
ReplyDeleteThe low should be in, but I doubt it is some important low. Silver and miners look like.... nothing. USD/JPY made important low so I would say forget about gold rallies higher.
Delete