Intermediate term view - too many options the best for me is a triangle.
Another sideway week... the pattern looks like some b wave. I do not think it is small degree wave iv from an impulse lasting two weeks is way too long.
I doubt it is wave 2 market breadth and the indicators do not support wave 3. So sticking to the plan wave D of a triangle or alternate if we see deeper push lower to support it is possible that this is wave 4 of a diagonal. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - shallow pullback lasting for so long is most of the time some connecting wave x/b. The first leg up from the April low consists of two zig-zags. The leg lower consists again of two zig-zags. From the May low we have one zig-zag up and connecting wave running now - the odds are higher that we will see another zig-zag up for a double zig-zag like the previous two legs.
So as long as the price stays above MA200 the 2690-2700 area I expect another zig-zag to finish wave D of a triangle - main scenario.
If we see deeper retracement to support 2670-2680 area it is possible that we have a diagonal - alternate scenario.
If the price breaks below support wave E is running already - low probability at the moment because reversal pattern is missing.
Intermediate term - I just can not see impulses all corrective waves and too many options to trade with conviction. Just waiting and preferred scenarios is wave D from a triangle.
Long term - nothing new waiting for he market to reveal it's intentions. I do not see imminent reversal and sell off.
So far the move up is very disappointing - look at the angle of ascend for the price and RSI.... the histogram is resetting close to zero and price is doing nothing. This is not bullish price action.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing impressive, in the middle of the range.... nothing bullish, nothing bearish.
McClellan Oscillator - series of lower highs and moving lower close to the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency again I doubt that the indexes will rally higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - series of lower highs.
HURST CYCLES
Day 39 of the 40 day cycle - I think it made a top and now we are waiting for the low.
Week 15 from the last important low in February. If we have a triangle expect 20w/40w/18 month cycle low when it is finished and I will revert to my initial count.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
The setup could not be finished, it was negated at day 8. This is another signs for weakness and I doubt we have an impulse.
The histogram on the daily is resetting lower, but the price moves sideways - not a bearish price action. Most likely we will see a few more days to finish corrective pattern and a move higher.
Now it looks like impulsive down move. But XLF goes down so much while QQQ is stable... So this is still correction and the scenario diagonal is more likely? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt is not possible to say. If we see a low and reversal than we will have only a-b-c for diagonal. If we see a pause and continuation it will start looking like an impulse and wave E already running.
DeleteAt the moment everything is pointing lower so until we see anything else the direction is lower.
market now up 275 i bought that bottom yesterday
DeleteIt looks good for 2760.
Deletewondering if we willl retest lows again?
DeleteMaybe 2700-2705, but this should be all.
Delete2700 first or 2760 first
DeleteFirst 2705 if we see test of the low.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteFor FTMIB, it looks impulsive and the only pattern for me to stay positive on the medium to longer term is that the current decline is the C wave of a irregular flat. Your thoughts on this? Thanks for the great works. KT Wong
Yes, I see the same. The next important low is late 2019 and I have the feeling that we will not see severe bear market. More likely some huge corrective pattern and maybe the European indexes have already begun with it.
DeleteSo currently we are going to the final impulsive move to finish wave D in the short term chart above? What's the target? Thanks. It seems all different index are not synchronized at all. QQQ is weak, xbi, IWM is so strong...
ReplyDeleteNo clue... I am not sure if we will see a higher high at all.
DeleteThe indexes are close to intermediate term high and I will not be surprised if XBI and RUT reversed already.
krasi was that todays bottom or we go lower 2650
ReplyDeletebought that bottom
ReplyDeleteMaybe one more leg higher, with or without new minor high it does not look good at all.
DeleteI do not see condition for a rally too dangerous NDX/RUT/XBI all look like imminent reversal.
XLF sugests one more small leg higher to close the gap, but just a correction before turning lower again.
rough market ive been buying dips and selling
ReplyDeletemaybe 2760 or 2660
Yes, choppy market... but it takes too long to move up and the markets look weak.
DeleteHi Krasi! I am short at 10500 on the Nifty Index. I think the impulse higher is over and now looking for a lower low. What are your thoughts on this? Thank you for all your work. Really means a lot! Dev
ReplyDeleteJust a quick look - c wave lower to finish a correction slightly below MA200 10250-10300
DeleteHi Krasi
ReplyDeleteI feel there is too much pessimism for the short and medium term in the above comments... to me it looks like Russell and Nasdaq have been running wave 3 now and S&P and Dow have just finished wave 2 and starting the third. We should see new highs for all the indices soon, after all the Russell index has usually been the leading indicator. I think your long term prediction with the last rally is on its way now. Where am i wrong with this view?
Thanks
Kris
There is no third wave all corrective waves.
DeleteHow about USOIL and XLE? It seems oil should be the impulsive wave down? Thanks.
DeleteThis should be important high for OIL. I have to look my cycle chart, but I think it could last more than a year before we see the low.
DeleteXLE could squeeze one more high, but it should follow oil lower too.
Thanks. Hope you can post some chart about it in the weekly update. And GOLD/miner is almost stable, there's no impulsive move in either direction in the next short/intermediate term? For SPX is today's move impulsive up as some wave 3 or?
DeleteI will post in a few weeks with the long term update.
DeletePrecious metals are mess... and everybody bullish again. I do not understand it. USD turned higher and the direction is lower.
The indexes it is just a-b-c not third wave if you ask me.
2800 will come this month in market my opinion
ReplyDeleteI do not see such rally.
Delete