Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - either w-x-y double zig-zag or less likely a-b-c zig-zag with running correction b-wave.
Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. Another view with line chart. This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow. Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - very weak buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75 with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably bounce of 20d low and higher into 20d high, lets see if there is another day or two left.
Intermediate term - mature 10w and 40w cycles, the 40w cycle high/low divide better in three with no clear 20w high/low.
Week 18 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 31, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.
Hello Krasi,i agree all of you wrote. Do you think It Is real the possibility of a direct war Nato vs Russia for broker the market or no? Strange winds of war in Europe
ReplyDeleteYes it is very probable, war is needed as excuse why everything goes down the drain.
DeleteThat was exactly What I was thinking when I saw Krasi charts and future probabilities.
Deletekrasi, the put-call option flows is indeed showing puts more than calls next week. retail is still bullish, and so ES remains elevated. Dealers/market makers are hedging Retail's FOMO-buying with puts, but are pulling out money from the ES pool. This is Retail at its finest. I suspect it will end in tears next week. do you see as a retrace before another ATH at 5250? or all the way to 4500?
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the Feb monthly candle, size shows we rise even more in March. It’s not going to just reverse. Just go with market. Why are you guys fighting the market so hard? Wait until market tells you it’s going down. Look at the candle.
DeleteGreen monthly candle means the next one will be green too... great logic and when red candle will follow? How did this worked at the last two highs in 2022 and 2023?
DeleteNasdaq has added 8,000 points in a year. Thats bullish not bearish. You have been saying how the internals are bearish. Sure. But rising 8000 points has disproven your point.
Delete"Was" past tense - this is the past not the future. Obviously you do not make a difference. I was bullish back then too important 18m low.
DeleteOne more leg blow off the last few months which makes it worse not better.
Corrective pattern with divergences is bearish... but you can continue analyzing the past if you want.
"I have posted 30+ years MSFT chart and three charts last week - show me how they are wrong and how a strong bull market is running... because I am so wrong show me how right and smart you are."
ReplyDeleteWell go back and look at your long term charts (6 month) for the last three years. They were wrong. Now look at all the comments when the market bottomed in oct 22. People telling you when technicals went bullish. Golden crosses, etc. You called them delusional. They were right. Any questions? You might learn something from others but you'll probably just delete this comment like you do others. You act like we don't see them before you delete. Must be sad sitting by a computer all day deleting comments that go against you.
More empty talks do not explain me the past show me something for the future.
DeleteIn the middle of this rally the claim was this is new bull market my answer was and still is even with new ATH it still corrective wave.
Show me your bull market.... you can not show anything you are just believer it wil always go higher.
This is a corrective wave from 2009 right?
DeleteLook at the charts from last week and tell me if you see something else....
DeleteKrasi, may I make a suggestion to pause the animosity in the comments section? People come here because they think you are good at what you do and they want to see your analysis. When people express opposing views, you should avoid calling them sheepie, stupid, etc. In some cases, you know you will get it wrong like this last move up. So you should accept the opposing views.
ReplyDeleteWhat people are saying for the last few weeks is that you have not been right and they were right. So in the short term, they are right and you should accept it. Over the long term, who knows who will be right and who will be wrong.
Also people assume that you are trading based on your charts. I am guessing you trade stocks etc when you see opportunities and people may not know that you are making money on the way up. So it is incorrect for the people posting as well to just assume that you are short and losing money.
This is nothing compared to 2019 so it does not matter, just deleting.
DeleteAfter 2019 I am not polite anymore I call them for what they are - greedy stupid sheeple.
There is no opposing view because there is no view at all just believers everything goes higher forever.
I challenged this week all this "experts" - where are their view? nothing silence, just the usual you are wrong.
This blow off the last 4 months surprised me, but does not negate my analysis at all. This is still the same corrective wave which will be fully retraced.
Again because of 2019 I have started posting the first chart to show when to trade the analysis. When you think something is long term bearish it does not mean it is bearish now and you have to short it now.
Do you think it has changed something? - no, I receive the same comments "you are shorting for three years"?!?!?!! Idiots sheeple trading their emotions and projecting their stupidity on me.
But Krasi, those idiots are making millions. And it is going up forever due to the central bank financial engineering.
DeleteBut Krasi, those idiots are making millions - Show me the data your statement is based on.
DeleteAnd it is going up forever due to the central bank financial engineering - I will not even comment the stupidity of this statement.
ded
ReplyDeleteThis pattern looks better, three zig-zags for a wedge - https://invst.ly/13tzqx
ReplyDeleteNow what?..back up
ReplyDeletemaybe yesterday 20d low?
ReplyDeleteQuestionable... most of the indices have important low on 13th of February so it should be earlier on 28th of February.
DeleteIf you count from the next low when NDX made its low it is 20d low.
what the heck? every small pullback is a low this so stupid
ReplyDeletedolar down, impossible to go down
ReplyDeleteWho told you the dollar will go down?
DeleteWhy do you not think about the power of artificial intelligence changing humanity forever. It’s already here. This will catapult Nasdaq to 50,000. You haven’t seen anything yet.
Delete- griswald
Poor naive newbie bought the fantasy.... history lesson - Internet was born(80s), it was used as excuse for greed and stupidity(90s), dotcom bubble, real businesses were developed, Internet changed our life.
DeleteAI and blockchain are technologies which will change our daily life, but not now maybe in 10 years.
They are now in the phase excuse for greed. Everybody buying wanting to become reach tomorrow not because of the great technology or useful business concept.
First greed will be purged, guys like you will be wiped out and after 20 years maturing businesses will start emerging and slowly change our life.
But you can keep dreaming it is for free.... for now.
Index dollar to 95, support line
ReplyDeleteWhen you say so...
DeleteDollar is going with yield, both of them are going lower
ReplyDeleteStop posting ten times one is enough.
DeleteThere is no correlation yields lower SPX higher in fact it is the opposite.
$TNX - every four years it is lower 2007-2008/2011-2012/2014-2015/2019-2020 and now 2024-2025 when bonds are moving higher into 4y high. In all this years SPX moved lower into 4y cycle low.
As I wrote there is no original thought in your head just repeating mainstream bullshit.
Easy to check, but why bother with thinking...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&st=2003-03-07&id=p18280840475