Trading trigger - sell signal, extended cycles 50+ days.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - very complex and choppy pattern completed c/y/Y or triangle.
Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. Close below the trend line and MA10, RSI breaking lower - very high probability that we have turn lower.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - very weak, divergencies, turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence and turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple higher lows.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - very likely 20d high to complete 5w/10w high, alternate third 20d cycle high around FOMC.
The highs look like three extended 10w cycles for 40w cycle high. The lows - no clear 20w low, vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles like the highs. Trying to stick to the theory 20w low in February at week 16 or another extended cycle.
Week 20 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16.
Week 33 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 33 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023. In this case next important low is in June and next important high in November.
Every little pullback being bought aggressively is not a sign of a top. It’s going another 10% higher. Don’t fight the market.
ReplyDeleteYou are right
DeleteHow did you come up with 10%? Why not 100%? I say 1000% higher.
DeleteTo rise 100%, it has to first rise10%. No one knows what the future target is as you too have been consistently wrong. Could it rise 100% in 5-10 years, sure. Could it drop 50% first? Maybe. Nasdaq rose 8000 points in one year. Who knew that? Certainly not you
DeleteShort said you are clueless, you can not offer better analysis or prove my analysis wrong so just another believer with personal attacks.
DeleteWhy are you here when I am constantly wrong?
krasi, this person is lady S. talk exactly the same, just delete her posts.
DeleteDefinitely NOT Lady S - the English is too good.
DeleteVix has already bottomed. Top could be any day or might have already occured. Foolish to buy here!
ReplyDeleteCan y get over the top again? First chart looks dead on so far.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, can you provide some update on today movement?
ReplyDeleteBetter visible on the DJ - https://invst.ly/142ojp
DeleteThe same for SPX - https://invst.ly/142olk
You are asking the wrong person. There is one person in control. You need to ask JPow :-)
ReplyDeletekrasi, it seems that it has exceeded 5230. whats the view of the situation now?
ReplyDeleteSee above posted links, third leg higher but not an impulse.
Deletewhich posted links? I cant find the 'third leg higher' mention. I am losing alot of money holding the shorts. thinking of cutting now.
DeleteTen percent higher. Here it comes
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to you
DeleteGreedy stupid sheeple as usual this is the end of 10% surge not the start.
DeleteIf I had followed you straight away
ReplyDeleteIf we focus only on market psychology, it looks like the Fed is done raising rates (for now). Inflation is also on the rise and I am wanting for more $$. Why would anyone want to sell here?
ReplyDeleteSimple because it is the next important high like the start of 2018-2020-2022-2024.... do you notice something or I have to draw it to grasp it?
DeleteLooking at RSP cycles are more obvious, 17 January 10w low and 15 March 20w low
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree - dominant 40w cycle and the 20w cycle makes a shallow low before the top - the two small red weekly candles.
Deleteso what does this mean???? crash when...
DeleteCrashes occur at the end not at the start, if there is such will be after the elections.
DeleteIt means the same like before - visually there will be three lows in this 40w cycle, but time can be tracked better on the way down.
Krasi, whats the spx number top number now? 5250 now...
ReplyDeleteI've been following Krasi for a long time (first time posting). I honestly don't know why Krasi continues to take the time and publish his viewpoints only to get badgered when wrong. Yes, he's been wrong for a while, but if he was right every time, he'd charge for this free blog or simply go off the grid and retire with his quadrillions. Where's your analysis? Everything Krasi does can be justified with technicals of one sort or another. Technicals aren't always right - otherwise, there'd be just one technical but the guy takes the time and guts to share his viewpoints (virtually realtime).
DeleteSeriously, the amount of arrogance from bashers and trolls makes me wonder. Post your technical thesis!
Mine is we're at the top of the SPY channel and top should be / could be around 5245; RSI is quite high across names; a top in the Demark world; and technically overbought. One can see the drop coming because Apple is getting hammered today in an up tape (when the market tanks, Apple is bought up as the safe heaven so in advance it has to be dropped in a strong market breadth day). This is a good place to short if so inclined (and I have been for the past 2 days).
Buying up here? Combining reverse repo actions, bogus elections, increasing inflation yet with a joke of a promise to cut rates 3 times still this year, a tighter and steeper channel (canal) with a multi year war going on are other reasons this market will roll over (and has nothing to do with cycles, moon phases, Williams %).
What's the bull thesis? Please share - genuinely curious.
Thx for responding - I've been trading since 1996 and think the market often makes no sense. I worked on creating algo's based on technicals and AP market headlines balancing weighting across key words. But now, a lot of that is media controlled to fit the narrative.
DeleteBut generally, money printing creates more funds with which to invest which implies a higher market. And it's a fast track with the occasional speed bump. But easy money since 2008 is coming to an end so the markets will have a point of reckoning soon.
Krasi be careful because the false hopes of collapses and declines that you are disseminating in this blog can do a lot of harm to your readers' wallets. They could lose a lot of money, what's your disclaimer?
ReplyDeleteAt the bottom of the page. I have not tried to convince any one to buy or sell.
DeleteMy fear is that the powers that be have littered the blogs and forums of the web with basher who have the task of creating operational disorder and sending retail one way while they go the other. Be careful.
ReplyDeleteIn the financial area I doubt it. No need to control greed just look around full with believers... and those with the big money are so stupid selling with both hands.
DeleteKrasi, you keep deleting almost everything, you only leave compliments, it's difficult for them to give you any, at this point what's the point of it all? Wouldn't it be better for you who do it for free to close everything and leave it alone or create an invitation-only blog?
ReplyDeleteIf some one wants to show analysis fine, to show where my analysis is wrong fine.
DeleteThe guy above with the 10% - I gave him the chance to explain... of course just throwing numbers around.
After 2019 anything else will be deleted. It was waaay worse... I was trying to help and explain - not any more. The greedy idiots will receive what they deserve.
They all will disappear very quickly this is not the first time so no need to block the comments.
The final 5/c is missing to complete the pattern - https://invst.ly/143dir
ReplyDeletemay I ask where is the estimate top range where those alphabets are located?
DeleteAround 5275
DeleteI have just a problem to think about bear market when you see new ATH even of a lot of divergence
ReplyDeleteI think u best understand better than anyone. Why not up? Why i say up and up before down.
Deletethis is Purim this week-end for jewish people so the stockmarket will be up at the end of the day tomorrow whathever what happens
ReplyDelete