Weekly preview

Slow price action.... holidays, close to the top the pattern and the cycles look more clear. Still waiting for the small final wave, it takes longer because we have another zig-zag - the supposed implulse c-wave consists of sub-waves which are zig-zags.

Overall nothing new just the sentiment is getting more extreme, agressive and absurd.... so much bullshit it's unbelievable and all this for the fourth time in row every two years since 2017... literaly the same. It happens at every important top... for those who think they are very smart and special and this time is something different - well not really the same dumb and greedy "traders". And here commes history and statistics:
- final wave blow off 5 months in 2017 followed by 20% correction in 2018.
- final wave blow off 5 months in 2019 followed by 35% crash in 2020.
- rounding top in 2021 followed by 27% correction in 2022.
- final wave blow off 5 months..... wait this time is different.

P.S. until 2019 I was polite answering to every comment and explaining... until it escalated to realy crazy levels. After that I do not care. At every top is full with greedy dumb xxxx and their comments are just deleted. If you do not have analysis to share or ask something it will be deleted. If you do not like my analysis do not read it, this is not an "emotional trashbin".


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at important top every two years early 2018-2020-2022-2024 etc.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same very choppy c-wave impulse or ugly y-wave completing y=w/Y. The final wave is another zig-zag we saw the b-wave this week and next week expect the top.

Intermediate term - counting this as an impulse for a-b-c... it does not matter it is a top - pattern,cycles and indicators are clear.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change weak with divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - above 70 with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75 with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low, divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - around the end of next week we should see completed 20d/5w/10/20w/40w cycle high.

Week 22 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March, I expect 40w cycle vusialy consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 35 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... most likely 18m cycle high.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 34 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023. In this case next important low is in June and next important high in November.