Weekly preview

Final hooray higher now we have possible three legs higher for ugly impulse c-wave of a-b-c. The big picture does not change this is important top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, very extended cycles 60+ days(high-tohigh) most likely two daily(10w) cycles.
Analysis - at important top every two years early 2018-2020-2022-2024 etc.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the choise is very choppy c-wave impulse or ugly y-wave completing y=w/Y. One more wave v/5/c will look better for completed pattern.

Intermediate term - counting this as an impulse for a-b-c... it does not matter it is a top - pattern,cycles and indicators are clear.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change weak with divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Bullish Percentage - above 70 with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75 with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - with divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the alternate scenario playing out third 20d cycle - a day or two left.
The highs look like three extended 10w cycles for 40w cycle high, with two extended 5w cycles consisting of three 20d cycles.
The lows - no clear 20w low probably the two red weeks in March at week 20.

Week 21 for the 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle vusialy consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 34 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... most likely 18m cycle high.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 34 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023. In this case next important low is in June and next important high in November.
This should be 18m high in this case decline into 18m low should start and this low should be in Q1.2025 right on time for 2.5y(7y)/4y(9y) cycle low - see the two charts below.

Closer look at the 7y and Hurst 9y cycles. Interesting is how they live together and intertwine. The first one makes a nice hit in 2009 the second explains the 2020 crash. The most interesing part is how the next 2.5y /4y and 7y/9y cycle lows converge together.
The explanation is very simple at a low of higher degree waves with different lengths bottom at the same time - example all 5w,10w,20w cycles will bottom at the same time at 40w low.
The 7y/9y cycles bottoming at the same time means cycle low of higher degree is expected in 2029 - most likely the 54y cycle from the seventies.... or even longer.

The seven year cycle(red) has a great hit in 2002/2009, does not explain the 2020 crash which is important pattern dividing the rally from 2009 in two, but fits perfect with the strength from the last important low.
The most interesting part is the sequence of long/short cycles.... which will explain the last short cycle and the strength - this is my mistake not paying attention to cycles longer than 4y and how they work together.

The nine year cycle(red) has a hit in 2002, miss in 2009(my explanation seqular reversal gold/usd in 2011 and maybe pattern low in 2011), explains the 2020 crash. This cycle suggests that the next decline should be something more than 5% pullback.