Weekly preview

We have double top and reversal candle... lets see next week if there will be some follow through.


TRADING
Trading trigger - neutral.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like mirror image of the prior zig-zag and double top as suggested.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - some kind of bottoming.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - if we have a top this is the cycle count which fits. Next is decline into 20d/5w/10w cycle low.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 13 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.

Weekly preview

The potential impulse was busted again. We have two legs zig-zag and completed double zig-zag for the second leg. All this at week 12 - SPX is running since mid-2022 with strange rhytm average 12+-1 week cycle highs... probably shorter 20w cycles.
Either this is the top or mirror image of the previous leg mid-April to mid-May and something like double top. The cycle could be 12 or 14 weeks it vary 1-2 weeks... so we wait to see what happens next week.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - from the late May low we have completed double zig-zag. Equal length for the two zig-zags was reached this week. Either this is the top or mirror image of the previous leg mid-April to mid-May and something like double top.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly. Other indices like NYSE/DJ/SPXEW are not following - sideways corrective move in June.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week we should see 20d low. Possible intermediate term high extended 10w or shorter 20w cycle what ever it is.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.
Pretty consistent cycle highs every 12+-1 weeks... now at week 12 from the previous high. Maybe shorter 20w cycles or 40w cycle dividing in three not two.

Weekly preview

The NVDA bubble and the AAPL burst higher to complete c-wave pushed the SPX higher to complete possible impulse.
The rest of the market NYSE/DJ/DAX etc. look completely different... in fact it looks the same like the topping pattern in 2021 September to December - most of the indices flat for 4 months while SPX/NDX were pushing higher. Comparing to 2021 this is the November high, next we should see a few weeks lower and 20w high and then the slide lower begins.
This is a major high the indices are topping since March and SPX/NDX are pushed higher by the NVDA bubble. Or you can keep dreaming that magnificent seven one is a bull market in progress.... btw if you start counting from 2009 there is 5 surges higher each of them lasting 26/26/22/21 months and this one is already 21 months long, but you can keep dreaming that this is not a top.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the impulse pattern is completed, now we should see reversal. I am suspicious about this impulses... if we see more to the upside it is another double zig-zag and not an impulse.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag and topping similar to 2021 with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly.
NDX double zig-zag nice Fibo levels and alternation a/c wave size between the two zig-zags.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no, change, weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - sligthly higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - way too long for one 10w high and if you look at DJ/NYSE I would say we have 10w high in mid-May.
If the pattern with shorter 20d cycle continue this should be a 20d high a lower next week into 20d low.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.

Weekly preview

Nothing new - the SPX looks like impulse probably in iv/5 and around FOMC v/5 should complete the pattern from October 2022.
NDX/SPX look stronger because of NVDA stock but it is at major top. The other indices with weak retracement and overall divergences daily,weekly,monthly for all indices.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, another extended cycle at the length where we see reversal.
Analysis - important top 18m high, which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the late stages of a fifth wave. iv/5 should be running and v/5 around FOMC...

Intermediate term - some kind of topping pattern testing the top with RSI/MACD divergences on all time frames daily/weekly/monthly.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - sligthly higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - again it looks like extended 10w cycle near completition with 6x20d/3x5w cycles.

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.

Weekly preview

SPX still looks like wave 4, but if you look at other indices like DJ,NYSE,SPXEW most of the rally was retraced... the tech stocks/NVDA again creating the illusion of a strong market.
Some kind of topping at 18m high is running, if you look at the 2021-2022 top it looks the same.


TRADING
Trading trigger - neutral signal, up and down around the MA.
Analysis - 18m high turning lower into 18m low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it still looks like w4, but only for SPX/NDX. NYSE/DJ have different pattern - waiting to see how the top will look like.

Intermediate term - some kind of topping pattern testing the top with divergence.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned higher, mixed signals, overall weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe some very extended 5w/10w cycles in both directions....

At 18m high, the cycles 10w/20w/40w deviate from the usual length. Last week I have talked about shorter 40w cycles... if the indices continue with this rhytm we should see 18m low short before the US elections.